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Message: <blockquote data-quote="snm1990" data-source="post: 31505901" data-attributes="member: 537633"> <table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>Horizon</td><td>Scenario</td><td>Est</td></tr><tr><td>30-day (signing + immediate implementation)</td><td>Deal signed June 19 & war stays stopped</td><td>~70%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Signing slips / partial breakdown, but no return to full war (limbo)</td><td>~18%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Return to open war</td><td>~12%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>90-day (does the 60-day framework produce something durable?)</td><td>Final-accord track progressing / durable de-escalation</td><td>~45%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Frozen limbo — war stopped, MOU half-implemented, nothing resolved</td><td>~33%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Sign-then-collapse (your 2025 precedent)</td><td>~22%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>12-month</td><td>Stable cold peace / managed rivalry</td><td>~35%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Frozen limbo / recurring low-level clashes</td><td>~33%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Renewed major war (4th cycle)</td><td>~22%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Genuine comprehensive settlement</td><td>~10%</td></tr></table>Claude ලොක්ක ජුනි 15 හිතපු විදිහ, මේකේ ගොඩක් දේවල් ඒ විදිහට කැරකෙනවා නේද..</blockquote>

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