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Message: <blockquote data-quote="MihiCherub" data-source="post: 15267909" data-attributes="member: 238676"><p>But you may be correct. some how it's may be same like the monti hall question. if you drop one of probabilities, nothing happen to your previous probability if you not switch.  A single coin toss is 50/50. But two consecutive tosses is  50/50 for the first, and 25/75 for the second. Taken as a set. There is 1/4 chance you were right before since we know one of the toss is a tail, so may be your initial probability being correct was 1/4, your final chance of being correct was probably 1/4. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/default/dull.gif"  class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":dull:" title="Dull    :dull:" data-shortname=":dull:" /> But the problem is question begin after the first flip with the result which is tail. Therefore we cannot consider head-head probability. So the answer is I think 1/3.</p></blockquote><p></p>

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