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Message: <blockquote data-quote="uhox" data-source="post: 6138987" data-attributes="member: 32883">please read below. These observation are from one of our friend..Do you agree with them?....Open for debate...I do not agree with few points but agree on some points...Nomination day December 17, 2009  Notes First Total no of registered voters   =14,088,500 Expected voting at 80%=           11,272,840Winner has to get                         5,636,420(Tamil vote in the North down by nearly 80,000--(dead or left the country) compared to 2005.Voters in North and East             2,003,746  Expected vote                                1,620,960.(includes nearly 60,000 Sinhala voters in Ampara) TwoThe Elections Commissioner overruled objections to Sarath Fonseka’s nomination by another candidate, Sarath Kongahage, who claimed Fonseka was a US citizen and therefore not eligible to contest. However, Kongahage could not substantiate his claim.  Actually Fonseka is a Green card holder—how much that will affect the election is uncertain-(first even Grencard holder to contest--Fosneka will have to visit USA every six months or else his Green card will be annuled).  ThreeI think that the key areas that will determine the results are Central, East and Northern provinces.Rambukwella, the UNP’s former district leader for Kandy, polled over 143,000 votes when the UNP came into power in 2001. He is a government minister now.  The next UNP figure to emerge in Kandy was S.B. Dissanayake who polled even more votes than Rambukwella-over 180,00.  Fonseka has to win Central Province, or elese the election would be lost in my view.  Four Rauf Hakeem will have to get the Muslims to vote in large numbers for Fonseka if Chief minister Pillyan's  presence with the Tamil votes can be countered. This is a key area to watch.  The Sinhala votes there would be crucial.  Five (a)Western Province UPFA Minister and JHU strongman Udaya Gammanpila predicts that Rajapaksa will get over 50  percent of the vote-unprecedented increase compared to 2005.   Fonseka has to win Western Province by 60 percent-or else the election is lost. JVP will play a key role here.  Five (b)Sarath Fonseka predicted yesterday that many prominent government parliamentarians, including ministers, will join him. Arjuna Ranatunga joined Fonseka yestarday.  UPFA Western Province Chief Minister Prasanna Ranatunga is Arjuna's brother. SixHow many votes will the five independents get?They are Tamils and Muslims--TNA MP from the TELO, M. K. Sivajilingam (his candidature was not endorsed by the TNA), former SLMC MP representing the Jaffna District, Dr I. M. Illiyas and former SLMC and UNP National List MP from the Amparai District Myown Mustapha, who resigned from the post of Deputy Higher Education Minister last week to contest as an independent candidate.  Seven The Supreme court rejected extra security for Fonseka---he wanted 600 personnel. Government had granted him 60 odd persons.  EightForty five minutes of state TV time will be given to each canditate to campaign</blockquote>

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