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Message: <blockquote data-quote="netlife007" data-source="post: 19701114" data-attributes="member: 79514">The morning after the political honeymoon: Frogy Sirisena’s futureWith  days turning into weeks and weeks into months, President Maithripala Sirisena  appeared to have realized that power is ultimately the primary concern of  politics and political leadership. What necessarily follows from this is also  the realization that, to sustain a ‘good government’ in trying times one has to  engage in practices which are antithetical to the very idea of good governance.  Ever a contradiction to the ordinary mind, this is an uncomfortable reality in  politics.But  in a democracy (unlike in any other system of governance), political realities  can carry unpredictable consequences. Now with the completion of the first year  in power, the people are exposed to a leader and a government, confronted by  daunting challenges, facing an uncertain future. Once considered a refreshing  voice – and still the West’s newfound darling of South Asia – President Sirisena  has begun to speak and act in old and familiar ways. This isn’t surprising. As a  political honeymoon (between a President and the people) slowly ends, the  popularity wanes and the stains become more apparent, it would be natural for a  leader to wonder how to retain power while protecting himself from his political  enemies.LamentationDemocracies  can tell us how the people have voted, what the numbers are. But they are unable  to tell us accurately why leaders get defeated, why the people voted the way  they did. This inability has caused the popular lamentation one encounters in  political commentary about Sri Lanka today. In wondering, as political  commentators often do, whether real ‘change’ has taken place, one may be  engaging in a critical exercise; but it’s also an exercise that stems from a  misunderstanding of what actually happened in January, 2015.Rajapaksa-defeatMahinda  Rajapaksa’s key failure is often considered to have been his inability to  introduce democratic reform. While this is only partially true, there were more  decisive reasons for his downfall. One of the most significant was Rajapaksa’s  inability to respect and please the ‘old guard’ of the SLFP. Surrounded by his  own family, Rajapaksa underestimated the anger and frustration that was  generating within the SLFP’s senior-camp. Inevitably, the regime cracked with  Sirisena’s exit; and perhaps with that, the hearts of the senior SLFPers were  never at the same place again. Torn between a secret desire to support the new  developments and the sheer impossibility of imagining a world without Rajapaksa  in power, the senior SLFPers appeared to be screaming for a victory for  Rajapaksa, while hoping that the Rajapaksa-regime would be finally  defeated.In  addition, hubris had consumed him. On the one hand, in being unable to listen to  his more realist-advisors, Rajapaksa proved that his methods lacked the nuance  and sophistication required to act in a post-war setting; especially in  addressing issues relating to accountability and power-sharing. To be sure,  Rajapaksa’s overarching ideological approach to these issues was not  inconsistent with the wishes of a majority. The problem, however, was one of  serious ‘mismanagement’; and of course, a disgruntled West.On  the other hand, hubris led him to alienate his broader constituency. In  particular, having unleashed forces such as the Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) into  society, those very forces ran out of control effectively ending all hopes of  retaining power. In all this, Rajapaksa failed to learn one of the least  regarded lessons from Machiavelli: that in the long run, a ruler cannot run the  risk of being hated by his people. In Sri Lanka’s case, the people included the  minority peoples as well. After long years in democratic politics, Rajapaksa had  forgotten the humbling potential of democracy: the possibility of electoral  defeat. Yet, democracies work in mysterious ways. In his swift recovery,  especially since August 2015, it is Rajapaksa who is slowly reminding his  opponents that electoral politics is never for the complacent..</blockquote>

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