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Message: <blockquote data-quote="imhotep" data-source="post: 28604258" data-attributes="member: 562115">Since the pill makes her memory completely wiped out every time she wakes up, she would not know whether it is a Monday or a Tuesday. Then the coin could be heads and it is Monday, the coin could be tails and it is Monday, or the coin could be tails and it is Tuesday. Each of these is conditions are equally likely from her perspective, so the probability of each is one-third. Since the coin comes up heads in only one of these situations, her subjective probability that the coin came up heads is one-third.</blockquote>

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