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Message: <blockquote data-quote="amd2100" data-source="post: 9333280" data-attributes="member: 89729">About the ReportThis report makes demographic  projections. Projections are not the  same as predictions. Rather, they  are estimates built on current  population data and assumptions about  demographic trends; they are what  will happen if the current data are  accurate and the trends play out  as expected. But many things --  immigration laws, economic conditions,  natural disasters, armed  conflicts, scientific discoveries, social  movements and political  upheavals, to name just a few -- can shift  demographic trends in  unforeseen ways, which is why this report adheres  to a modest time  frame, looking just 20 years down the road. Even so,  there is no  guarantee that Muslim populations will grow at precisely  the rates  anticipated in this report and not be affected by unforeseen  events,  such as political decisions on immigration quotas or national  campaigns  to encourage larger or smaller families.  The projections presented in this report are the medium figures in a   range of three scenarios -- high, medium and low -- generated from   models commonly used by demographers around the world to forecast   changes in population size and composition. The models follow what is   known as the cohort-component method, which starts with a baseline   population (in this case, the current number of Muslims in each country)   divided into groups, or cohorts, by age and sex. Each cohort is   projected into the future by adding likely gains -- new births and   immigrants -- and subtracting likely losses - deaths and emigrants.   These calculations were made by the Pew Forum's demographers, who   collaborated with researchers at the International Institute for Applied   Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria on the projections for the United   States and European countries. (For more details, see <a href="http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-appendix-a.aspx" target="_blank">Appendix A: Methodology</a>.)  The current population data that underpin this report were culled   from the best sources available on Muslims in each of the 232 countries   and territories for which the U.N. Population Division provides general   population estimates. Many of these baseline statistics were published   in the Pew Forum's 2009 report, Mapping the Global Muslim Population,   which acquired and analyzed about 1,500 sources of data -- including   census reports, large-scale demographic studies and general population   surveys -- to estimate the number of Muslims in every country and   territory. (For a list of sources, see <a href="http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-appendix-b.aspx" target="_blank">Appendix B: Data Sources by Country</a>.)  All of those estimates have been updated for 2010, and some have been   substantially revised. (To find the current estimate and projections   for a particular region or country, see <a href="http://features.pewforum.org/muslim-population/" target="_blank">Muslim Population by Country, 1990-2030</a>.)   Since many countries are conducting national censuses in 2010-11, more   data are likely to emerge over the next few years, but a cut-off must  be  made at some point; this report is based on information available as  of  mid-2010. To the extent possible, the report provides data for   decennial years -- 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030. In some cases,   however, the time periods vary because data is available only for   certain years or in five-year increments (e.g., 2010-15 or 2030-35).  The definition of Muslim in this report is very broad. The goal is to   count all groups and individuals who self-identify as Muslims. This   includes Muslims who may be secular or nonobservant. No attempt is made   in this report to measure how religious Muslims are or to forecast   levels of religiosity (or secularism) in the decades ahead.</blockquote>

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