Weekly Forex Forecast (February 19 – 23, 2018)
The USDJPY lost 260 pips last week. Not only did the pair clear the 2017 low at 107.30, but it also took out trend line support that extends from the September 2012 low. I mentioned this possibility in the February 13 commentary.
That was an incredibly significant breakdown. A risk-sensitive pair like the USDJPY breaking below a five and a half year support level signals the end of an era in my opinion.
It’s no coincidence that pairs like the EURJPY and GBPJPY have also broken below key handles in recent weeks.
As long as the USDJPY remains below the 107.30/80 resistance area on a daily closing basis, I’ll stay bearish here. The first key support sellers have to deal with comes in at 105.50, which is one of the levels I pointed out on Tuesday and also triggered Friday’s bounce.
A daily close below 105.50 would expose 103.70 followed by 101.75. As for the longer-term outlook, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pair trading at 100.00 at some point over the coming weeks and months.