Ranil is the happiest that SF is in prison. - Today, 09:54 AM
Sarath Fonseka’s return: An persistent headache?
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By Kalana Senaratne
(March 08, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The sudden and allegedly suspicious death of former General Secretary of the UNP and Minister of Transport, Highways and Civil Aviation, Gamini Athukorala (in 2002) seemed to have marked the end of a critical phase in Ranil Wickremesinghe’s political career; a phase which spanned from the early 1990s to 2002.
During this phase, Ranil saw most of the charismatic and senior colleagues in the UNP being assassinated [President Premadasa, Lalith Athulathmudali (then in the DUNF), Gamini Dissanayaka et al], or pass away (Gamini Athukorala). The deaths of these leaders made Ranil the undisputed Leader of the UNP, as well as of the Opposition, and more importantly, helped him remain there without much trouble.
The next critical phase began thereafter and continues to date. But this is not one in which Ranil sees his political challengers passing away. It is one in which such challengers are being either arrested, detained or imprisoned. One significant development in this regard was the imprisonment of Minister SB Dissanayaka, who was considered at that time to be the most serious political threat to Ranil, having almost single-handedly toppled President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s government (earlier, in 2001). Most recently, Ranil faced another threat which came in the form of General Sarath Fonseka. Just then, Fonseka was arrested.
Dangers of rushing to embrace a formidable threat
Ranil’s role as the Leader of the Opposition has been greatly overshadowed by the presence of Fonseka in the political mainstream during the past couple of months. Many began seeing Fonseka as a de facto Opposition Leader in case he lost the Presidential election and was elected to Parliament in April. In any case, Fonseka is too dominant a figure to be overshadowed by Ranil, and during the Presidential election campaign, it was clear that a depleted Opposition alliance, including the UNP, had been invigorated by the ‘war-hero’. Fonseka was far more popular than Ranil, and almost all within the Opposition (except those who crossed over), including Ranil himself, believed that it was only Fonseka who could have successfully challenged President Rajapaksa at a presidential election. Even though the argument can be raised that Fonseka polled fewer votes than Ranil in 2005, the popularity of the two cannot be compared by reference to the two elections which were held under very different circumstances.
In fact, Ranil would have also felt that if Fonseka was able to challenge President Rajapaksa at the zenith of his popularity, challenging Ranil, if necessary, would be child’s play for Fonseka.
All this makes Fonseka a ‘political prisoner’ in the eyes of Wickremesinghe. But, what is crucial here is that Fonseka is an ideal political prisoner who is, in the final analysis, immensely beneficial to his (Ranil’s) own political career. Having being humiliated during the Presidential election, the sudden arrest of Fonseka provides Ranil with a wonderful opportunity to regain some of the lost prestige by coming out in defence of Fonseka. It was Fonseka who was considered by some to be a ‘saviour’ of the UNP not so long ago. And this sudden twist of fate makes Ranil look like a possible saviour of Fonseka.
But is that really so? Can Ranil ever be sincere in his fight against the arrest of Fonseka? It is here that the release of Fonseka complicates matters for Ranil.
The first hypothetical scenario damages Ranil very significantly: i. e. the scenario where Fonseka is exonerated by the military tribunal and/or the civil courts. In such an eventuality, Fonseka will re-enter politics as a hero, as a man who (in the eyes of many who oppose the Rajapaksas) stood fearlessly against the ‘despotic’ leadership of the Rajapaksas, a man who, having fought the LTTE, is now fighting the Rajapaksas. In such a scenario, wouldn’t Ranil be dwarfed by Fonseka? And isn’t it why the General Secretary of the UNP Tissa Attanayaka claims that he or his party did not know anything about the launch of the online petition seeking signatures supporting Fonseka’s release?
The second hypothetical scenario is more favourable to Ranil i.e. Fonseka coming out somewhat bruised, found guilty of some of the charges, not guilty of others. Such a scenario (depending on the penalties imposed) would help Ranil assert himself for Fonseka would not be able to appeal to the masses as a ‘clean’ candidate who deserves greater recognition than Ranil.
While the above are hypothetical situations, Ranil would still worry about the more immediate problem:
the upcoming General Election. What happens if Fonseka (from the DNA) gives a stiff fight to him (in terms of preferential votes)? This looming danger makes Ranil an unwilling supporter of Fonseka’s release, for ‘support’ in this context could draw ‘sympathy votes’ for Fonseka. One should not forget that the upcoming election is one which will also test, to a great extent, the popularity of the two candidates: Ranil from the UNP vs. Fonseka from the DNA. Ranil knows this all too well and he is today seen drifting away from the Fonseka camp.
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