South Korea has concluded that a North Korean torpedo attack sank one of its warships in Mach killing 46 sailors, government sources and domestic news reports said Tuesday, as Seoul prepared to announce its investigative result later this week.
The much-anticipated finding would accuse North Korea of committing one of the worst military provocations since the end of the Korean War and deepen tensions between the two Koreas. North Korea, denying involvement, has vowed to retaliate against any attempt to link it with the March 26 blast that broke the South Korean corvette in half near a disputed sea border. But the South has pledged “resolute measures,” including economic sanctions, once investigators find the culprit.
“We will blame a torpedo attack and link it to North Korea,” said a government source familiar with the investigation, adding that the authorities were still fine-tuning an official announcement to be made on Thursday.
He refused to discuss forensic evidence that will be cited in the Thursday report.
In a series of closed-door briefings scheduled on Wednesday, the Foreign Ministry is scheduled to invite Chinese, Russian, Japanese and European diplomats and “present scientific and objective evidence to back up the conclusion that it was a North Korean torpedo attack,” said the national news agency Yonhap.
The finding is hardly a surprise. In recent weeks, South Korea’s defense minister has said a torpedo attack was the likely cause of the sinking and that residues of an explsoive used in torpedoes had been found in the doomed ship’s hull.
But South Korea has been careful to marshall all the evidence it can in a multinational investigation into the sinking to try to ensure that it can rally international support for economic and diplomatic sanctions against the North.
Investigators established what they said was a critical forensic link when they matched metal pieces and traces of explosive recovered from the ship and its sinking site with a stray North Korean torpedo secured by the South seven years ago, said Yonhap and other South Korean news media. They also said they had found a fragment believed to be part of a North Korean torpedo’s propeller.
The investigators have also been scrutinizing intercepted North Korean military communications to try to link the attack to a North Korean submarine, officials here said.
South Korean officials said that if they proved that the ship was attacked by a torpedo, people would naturally believe that the attacker was the North, with its long history of military and terrorist provocations against the South.
But it remained unclear whether the forensic evidence the South has so far accumulated was convincing enough to force China, a veto-wielding number of the United Nations Security Council and a North Korean ally, to support a statement or resolution denouncing the North.
A principled stance could burnish President Lee Myung-bak’s conservative credentials at home ahead of June 2nd mayoral and gubernatorial elections.Without Chinese support, however, his plan to punish the North will further weaken his country’s already diminished diplomatic leverage over Pyongyang, because it will only deepen the North’s economic dependence on China at the expense of inter-Korean trade, analysts say.
Meanwhile, opposition candidates for the June elections accused Mr. Lee of whipping up anti-North Korean sentiments to win conservative votes for his candidates.
“The government is unable to present any factual evidence that the ship was broken in half by a torpedo,” said Yoo Si-min, an opposition candidate, in a radio interview. “If they make their announcement without such evidence, they will make South Korea an international laughing stock.”
President Lee planned to make a speech next week to follow up on the Thursday announcement by the Defense Ministry. In recent weeks, he and other senior officials have dropped widespread hints that the North was to blame, although they have not formally accused Pyongyang.
They suspended funding for government-level exchanges with North Korea and asked South Korean companies not to start any new deals with the North.
On Tuesday, Mr. Lee talked with President Barack Obama on Tuesday. The White House later said that the two leaders “committed to follow the facts of the investigation wherever they lead.” Mr. Lee’s office added that Mr. Obama expressed “full confidence and support” for the investigation and South Korea’s response. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was scheduled to visit Seoul next week.
The finding of a torpedo attack would almost certainly darken the prospects for inter-Korean relations, which have deteriorated badly since Mr. Lee’s inauguration in 2008. They could also block an early resumption of six-nation talks on dismantling the North’s nuclear weapons program.
South Korea has ruled out any military counterattack but is considering a drastic cut in inter-Korean trade, according to officials here. Seoul and Washington may also increase joint military exercises targeting North Korean submarines, they said.
On Saturday, the South Korean navy fired warning shots when two North Korean patrol boats crossed the disputed western sea border. On Sunday, the North Korean military threatened “catastrophic consequences” if the South resumes loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts along the land border, another option in the South’s consideration.
NYT
The much-anticipated finding would accuse North Korea of committing one of the worst military provocations since the end of the Korean War and deepen tensions between the two Koreas. North Korea, denying involvement, has vowed to retaliate against any attempt to link it with the March 26 blast that broke the South Korean corvette in half near a disputed sea border. But the South has pledged “resolute measures,” including economic sanctions, once investigators find the culprit.
“We will blame a torpedo attack and link it to North Korea,” said a government source familiar with the investigation, adding that the authorities were still fine-tuning an official announcement to be made on Thursday.
He refused to discuss forensic evidence that will be cited in the Thursday report.
In a series of closed-door briefings scheduled on Wednesday, the Foreign Ministry is scheduled to invite Chinese, Russian, Japanese and European diplomats and “present scientific and objective evidence to back up the conclusion that it was a North Korean torpedo attack,” said the national news agency Yonhap.
The finding is hardly a surprise. In recent weeks, South Korea’s defense minister has said a torpedo attack was the likely cause of the sinking and that residues of an explsoive used in torpedoes had been found in the doomed ship’s hull.
But South Korea has been careful to marshall all the evidence it can in a multinational investigation into the sinking to try to ensure that it can rally international support for economic and diplomatic sanctions against the North.
Investigators established what they said was a critical forensic link when they matched metal pieces and traces of explosive recovered from the ship and its sinking site with a stray North Korean torpedo secured by the South seven years ago, said Yonhap and other South Korean news media. They also said they had found a fragment believed to be part of a North Korean torpedo’s propeller.
The investigators have also been scrutinizing intercepted North Korean military communications to try to link the attack to a North Korean submarine, officials here said.
South Korean officials said that if they proved that the ship was attacked by a torpedo, people would naturally believe that the attacker was the North, with its long history of military and terrorist provocations against the South.
But it remained unclear whether the forensic evidence the South has so far accumulated was convincing enough to force China, a veto-wielding number of the United Nations Security Council and a North Korean ally, to support a statement or resolution denouncing the North.
A principled stance could burnish President Lee Myung-bak’s conservative credentials at home ahead of June 2nd mayoral and gubernatorial elections.Without Chinese support, however, his plan to punish the North will further weaken his country’s already diminished diplomatic leverage over Pyongyang, because it will only deepen the North’s economic dependence on China at the expense of inter-Korean trade, analysts say.
Meanwhile, opposition candidates for the June elections accused Mr. Lee of whipping up anti-North Korean sentiments to win conservative votes for his candidates.
“The government is unable to present any factual evidence that the ship was broken in half by a torpedo,” said Yoo Si-min, an opposition candidate, in a radio interview. “If they make their announcement without such evidence, they will make South Korea an international laughing stock.”
President Lee planned to make a speech next week to follow up on the Thursday announcement by the Defense Ministry. In recent weeks, he and other senior officials have dropped widespread hints that the North was to blame, although they have not formally accused Pyongyang.
They suspended funding for government-level exchanges with North Korea and asked South Korean companies not to start any new deals with the North.
On Tuesday, Mr. Lee talked with President Barack Obama on Tuesday. The White House later said that the two leaders “committed to follow the facts of the investigation wherever they lead.” Mr. Lee’s office added that Mr. Obama expressed “full confidence and support” for the investigation and South Korea’s response. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was scheduled to visit Seoul next week.
The finding of a torpedo attack would almost certainly darken the prospects for inter-Korean relations, which have deteriorated badly since Mr. Lee’s inauguration in 2008. They could also block an early resumption of six-nation talks on dismantling the North’s nuclear weapons program.
South Korea has ruled out any military counterattack but is considering a drastic cut in inter-Korean trade, according to officials here. Seoul and Washington may also increase joint military exercises targeting North Korean submarines, they said.
On Saturday, the South Korean navy fired warning shots when two North Korean patrol boats crossed the disputed western sea border. On Sunday, the North Korean military threatened “catastrophic consequences” if the South resumes loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts along the land border, another option in the South’s consideration.
NYT
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