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<blockquote data-quote="SriLankaFirst" data-source="post: 6497677" data-attributes="member: 256732">What if....?&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Posted on December 2nd, 2009&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; by Lucky(Sydney)&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Due to the recent political upheaval in the land of Sri Lanka (SL),&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;several people have come out and claimed the victory of the war. So we&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; frequently hear/read the statements like “I am responsible for the victory over the LTTE”.&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; So I thought of compiling alist of critical events related to Sri Lanka&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;which happened during the last 3 – 4 years and analysed to see what if we&nbsp;&nbsp; failed in any of these missions, what would have been the possible outcome &nbsp;scenario?&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1 Mavil-Aru conflict 2006&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;This was the beginning of the war with LTTE andat that time General&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Fonseka was in the hospital after the suicide attack. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Mavil Aru was a bloody confrontation. LTTE closed the sluice gates of the&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Mavil Aru to block the supply of water to about 30,000 acres of ripe paddy affecting about 60,000 farmers. Started as a humanitarian operation, the&nbsp;&nbsp; Govt needed to restore the water supply from Mavil Aru to the innocent&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;farmers.&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; On August 8, 2006 when the LTTE announced it was restoring the water&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; supply, everyone expected the SL govt to call off the operation and come&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;to a settlement.If it was Ranil or Chandrika at the helm, it would have&nbsp;&nbsp; been the end of the story.Even the LTTE expected the same from Mahinda,&nbsp; &nbsp;but the Govt went ahead with the operation “Watershed” until it gained the full control of the sluice gates controlling the water flow. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;During the operation “Watershed” and immediately after, there was pressure from the International agencies and diplomatic missions to stop the&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; operation and come to a ceasefire.Even the ex US president Bill Clinton&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;intervened at one stage.In this instance President and the Govt selected&nbsp;&nbsp; the Military approach over the political solution to resolve the issueand &nbsp;which was never expected by the LTTE. The most important aspect of this&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; operation was to re-establish the credibility of the security forces and&nbsp;&nbsp; totally sideline the SLMM (Monitoring mission).&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;If the operation had failed – what would have been the outcome? LTTE would have taken the total control of the whole eastern province including&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Trincomalee. – Mahinda’s head would have been on the chopping block.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;2 SL Budget 2007&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;You may remember the tense situation that prevailed just before the voting for the SL Budget 2007. Mangala Samaraweera expected several MP’s to cross over from the Government side to the opposition; even the JVP expected the &nbsp;same. Wimal Weerawansa and his supporters saved the government on that&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; occasion. When the defectors knew that Govt will not lose, their whole&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; operation was deflated. Even the current JVP did not vote against the govt &nbsp;and abstained from the vote. Poor Anura Bandarnayake did not have a clue&nbsp;&nbsp; of the situation and got seated with the opposition. If the Govt lost the budget on that day, would you like to imagine the&nbsp; situation of the country now? Most probably Prabhakaran &amp; LTTE would have captured part of the country by now. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 3 Destruction of large LTTE ships in 2007&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;In 2007,SL Navy destroyed the several large LTTE ships which were&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;carrying arms and ammunition,in the high seas. It dealt a severe blow to&nbsp;&nbsp; the LTTE’s international arms shipment network and drastically reduced its &nbsp;fire power. This was a major turning point of the war. This was the first&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;time our small Navy went out of our water and completed a major operation&nbsp;&nbsp; successfully.&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; What would have happened if that operation failed? Who would get the&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;blame? .Of course President, Defense Secretary and Navy Commander would be the prime targets for the blame &amp; ridicule. The opposition along with LTTE would have started a campaign and toppled the Government. Most probably,&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Prabhakaran would be running his Eelam by now. General Fonseka was not in the scene at the all.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;4 UN Security Council in 2009&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Even though the physical war was going on within SL, there was another&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;battle that continued on outside SL. Most of theWestern nations (US, UK,&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;France, Norway, Sweden, etc) were using all their diplomatic fronts to&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; stop the war and come to a political settlement.Several times LTTE&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Diaspora with the help of the West tried to include SL conflict into the&nbsp;&nbsp; Security Council agenda, but failed because of China, Russia &amp; Vietnam.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Here again credit lies with the Rajapaksa regime for backing the correct&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;horse. Right from the beginning, Mahinda and the Govt had a very good&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; relationship with China, Russia &amp; India and that paved the way for their&nbsp;&nbsp; support.&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;If the LTTE Diaspora &amp; West won at the UN Security Council, most probably&nbsp;&nbsp; UN would have sent a Peace Keeping Force and that would have been the&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; birth of Eelam. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; </blockquote>

[QUOTE="SriLankaFirst, post: 6497677, member: 256732"] [B][FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=7][COLOR=#c20000][COLOR=#c20000][B]What if....?[/B][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][/B] [B][SIZE=2][/SIZE]Posted on December 2nd, 2009 by Lucky(Sydney)[/B] Due to the recent political upheaval in the land of Sri Lanka (SL), several people have come out and claimed the victory of the war. So we frequently hear/read the statements like [SIZE=6][COLOR=red][COLOR=red] “I am responsible for the victory over the LTTE”. [/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]So I thought of compiling a[B][COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue][B]list of critical events related to Sri Lanka which happened during the last 3 – 4 years and analysed to see what if we failed in any of these missions[/B][/COLOR][/COLOR][/B][/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2], [/SIZE]what would have been the possible outcome scenario? [B][SIZE=6][B] 1 Mavil-Aru conflict 2006[/B][/SIZE][/B][SIZE=2] [/SIZE]This was the beginning of the war with LTTE and[B][SIZE=4][COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue][B]at that time General Fonseka was in the hospital after the suicide attack. [/B][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/B][SIZE=2] [/SIZE]Mavil Aru was a bloody confrontation. LTTE closed the sluice gates of the Mavil Aru to block the supply of water to about 30,000 acres of ripe paddy affecting about 60,000 farmers. Started as a humanitarian operation, the Govt needed to restore the water supply from Mavil Aru to the innocent farmers. On August 8, 2006 when the LTTE announced it was restoring the water supply,[B][COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue][B] everyone expected the SL govt to call off the operation and come to a settlement.[/B][/COLOR][/COLOR][/B][B][SIZE=4][COLOR=red][COLOR=red][B]If it was Ranil or Chandrika at the helm, it would have been the end of the story.[/B][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/B]Even the[COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue] LTTE expected the same from Mahinda,[/COLOR][/COLOR][SIZE=2] [/SIZE]but the [COLOR=red][COLOR=red]Govt went ahead with the operation “Watershed” until it gained the full control of the sluice gates controlling the water flow. [/COLOR][/COLOR] During the operation “Watershed” and [COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue]immediately after, there was pressure from the International agencies and diplomatic missions to stop the operation and come to a ceasefire.[/COLOR][/COLOR]Even the [B][COLOR=red][COLOR=red][B]ex US president Bill Clinton intervened at one stage.[/B][/COLOR][/COLOR][/B]In this instance President and the [COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue]Govt selected the Military approach over the political solution to resolve the issue[/COLOR][/COLOR]and which was never expected by the LTTE. The most important aspect of this operation was to [COLOR=red][COLOR=red]re-establish the credibility of the security forces and totally sideline the SLMM (Monitoring mission). [/COLOR][/COLOR] If the operation had failed – what would have been the outcome? LTTE would have taken the total control of the whole eastern province including Trincomalee. – Mahinda’s head would have been on the chopping block. [B][FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=6][B] 2 SL Budget 2007[/B][/SIZE][/FONT][/B][SIZE=2] [/SIZE]You may remember the tense situation that prevailed just before the voting for the SL Budget 2007. Mangala Samaraweera expected several MP’s to cross over from the Government side to the opposition; even the JVP expected the same. Wimal Weerawansa and his supporters saved the government on that occasion. When the defectors knew that Govt will not lose, their whole operation was deflated. Even the current JVP did not vote against the govt and abstained from the vote. Poor Anura Bandarnayake did not have a clue of the situation and got seated with the opposition.[SIZE=6][COLOR=red][COLOR=red] If the Govt lost the budget on that day, would you like to imagine the situation of the country now? Most probably Prabhakaran & LTTE would have captured part of the country by now.[/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][SIZE=2] [/SIZE][B][SIZE=6][B] 3 Destruction of large LTTE ships in 2007[/B][/SIZE][/B][SIZE=2] [/SIZE]In 2007,[SIZE=4][COLOR=red][COLOR=red]SL Navy destroyed the several large LTTE ships which were carrying arms and ammunition,[/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE]in the high seas. It dealt a severe blow to the LTTE’s international arms shipment network and drastically reduced its[SIZE=2] [/SIZE]fire power. [B][SIZE=5][COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue][B]This was a major turning point of the war[/B][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/B][SIZE=2]. [/SIZE]This was the first time our small Navy went out of our water and completed a major operation successfully. What would have happened if that operation failed? Who would get the blame? .Of course President, Defense Secretary and Navy Commander would be the prime targets for the blame & ridicule. The opposition along with LTTE would have started a campaign and toppled the Government. Most probably, Prabhakaran would be running his Eelam by now. [SIZE=5] General Fonseka was not in the scene at the all. [/SIZE][SIZE=2] [/SIZE][B][SIZE=6][B] 4 UN Security Council in 2009[/B][/SIZE][/B][SIZE=2] [/SIZE]Even though the physical war was going on within SL, there was another battle that continued on outside SL. Most of the[B][SIZE=4][COLOR=red][COLOR=red][B]Western nations (US, UK, France, Norway, Sweden, etc) were using all their diplomatic fronts to stop the war and come to a political settlement.[/B][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/B]Several times LTTE Diaspora with the help of the West tried to include SL conflict into the Security Council agenda, but failed because of China, Russia & Vietnam. Here again credit lies with the Rajapaksa regime for backing the correct horse. Right from the beginning, Mahinda and the Govt had a very good relationship with China, Russia & India and that paved the way for their support. [B][SIZE=5][COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue][B] If the LTTE Diaspora & West won at the UN Security Council, most probably UN would have sent a Peace Keeping Force and that would have been the birth of Eelam. [/B][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/B][SIZE=2] [/SIZE] [/QUOTE]

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