What if....? Posted on December 2nd, 2009
by Lucky(Sydney)
Due to the recent political upheaval in the land of Sri Lanka (SL),
several people have come out and claimed the victory of the war. So we
frequently hear/read the statements like
“I am responsible for the victory over the LTTE”.
So I thought of compiling alist of critical events related to Sri Lanka
which happened during the last 3 – 4 years and analysed to see what if we
failed in any of these missions, what would have been the possible outcome
scenario?
1 Mavil-Aru conflict 2006
This was the beginning of the war with LTTE andat that time General
Fonseka was in the hospital after the suicide attack.
Mavil Aru was a bloody confrontation. LTTE closed the sluice gates of the
Mavil Aru to block the supply of water to about 30,000 acres of ripe paddy
affecting about 60,000 farmers. Started as a humanitarian operation, the
Govt needed to restore the water supply from Mavil Aru to the innocent
farmers.
On August 8, 2006 when the LTTE announced it was restoring the water
supply, everyone expected the SL govt to call off the operation and come
to a settlement.If it was Ranil or Chandrika at the helm, it would have
been the end of the story.Even the LTTE expected the same from Mahinda,
but the Govt went ahead with the operation “Watershed” until it gained the
full control of the sluice gates controlling the water flow.
During the operation “Watershed” and immediately after, there was pressure
from the International agencies and diplomatic missions to stop the
operation and come to a ceasefire.Even the ex US president Bill Clinton
intervened at one stage.In this instance President and the Govt selected
the Military approach over the political solution to resolve the issueand
which was never expected by the LTTE. The most important aspect of this
operation was to re-establish the credibility of the security forces and
totally sideline the SLMM (Monitoring mission).
If the operation had failed – what would have been the outcome? LTTE would
have taken the total control of the whole eastern province including
Trincomalee. – Mahinda’s head would have been on the chopping block.
2 SL Budget 2007
You may remember the tense situation that prevailed just before the voting
for the SL Budget 2007. Mangala Samaraweera expected several MP’s to cross
over from the Government side to the opposition; even the JVP expected the
same. Wimal Weerawansa and his supporters saved the government on that
occasion. When the defectors knew that Govt will not lose, their whole
operation was deflated. Even the current JVP did not vote against the govt
and abstained from the vote. Poor Anura Bandarnayake did not have a clue
of the situation and got seated with the opposition.
If the Govt lost the budget on that day, would you like to imagine the situation of the country now? Most probably Prabhakaran & LTTE would have captured part of the country by now.
3 Destruction of large LTTE ships in 2007
In 2007,SL Navy destroyed the several large LTTE ships which were
carrying arms and ammunition,in the high seas. It dealt a severe blow to
the LTTE’s international arms shipment network and drastically reduced its
fire power. This was a major turning point of the war. This was the first
time our small Navy went out of our water and completed a major operation
successfully.
What would have happened if that operation failed? Who would get the
blame? .Of course President, Defense Secretary and Navy Commander would be
the prime targets for the blame & ridicule. The opposition along with LTTE
would have started a campaign and toppled the Government. Most probably,
Prabhakaran would be running his Eelam by now.
General Fonseka was not in the scene at the all.
4 UN Security Council in 2009
Even though the physical war was going on within SL, there was another
battle that continued on outside SL. Most of theWestern nations (US, UK,
France, Norway, Sweden, etc) were using all their diplomatic fronts to
stop the war and come to a political settlement.Several times LTTE
Diaspora with the help of the West tried to include SL conflict into the
Security Council agenda, but failed because of China, Russia & Vietnam.
Here again credit lies with the Rajapaksa regime for backing the correct
horse. Right from the beginning, Mahinda and the Govt had a very good
relationship with China, Russia & India and that paved the way for their
support.
If the LTTE Diaspora & West won at the UN Security Council, most probably
UN would have sent a Peace Keeping Force and that would have been the
birth of Eelam.
by Lucky(Sydney)
Due to the recent political upheaval in the land of Sri Lanka (SL),
several people have come out and claimed the victory of the war. So we
frequently hear/read the statements like
“I am responsible for the victory over the LTTE”.
So I thought of compiling alist of critical events related to Sri Lanka
which happened during the last 3 – 4 years and analysed to see what if we
failed in any of these missions, what would have been the possible outcome
scenario?
1 Mavil-Aru conflict 2006
This was the beginning of the war with LTTE andat that time General
Fonseka was in the hospital after the suicide attack.
Mavil Aru was a bloody confrontation. LTTE closed the sluice gates of the
Mavil Aru to block the supply of water to about 30,000 acres of ripe paddy
affecting about 60,000 farmers. Started as a humanitarian operation, the
Govt needed to restore the water supply from Mavil Aru to the innocent
farmers.
On August 8, 2006 when the LTTE announced it was restoring the water
supply, everyone expected the SL govt to call off the operation and come
to a settlement.If it was Ranil or Chandrika at the helm, it would have
been the end of the story.Even the LTTE expected the same from Mahinda,
but the Govt went ahead with the operation “Watershed” until it gained the
full control of the sluice gates controlling the water flow.
During the operation “Watershed” and immediately after, there was pressure
from the International agencies and diplomatic missions to stop the
operation and come to a ceasefire.Even the ex US president Bill Clinton
intervened at one stage.In this instance President and the Govt selected
the Military approach over the political solution to resolve the issueand
which was never expected by the LTTE. The most important aspect of this
operation was to re-establish the credibility of the security forces and
totally sideline the SLMM (Monitoring mission).
If the operation had failed – what would have been the outcome? LTTE would
have taken the total control of the whole eastern province including
Trincomalee. – Mahinda’s head would have been on the chopping block.
2 SL Budget 2007
You may remember the tense situation that prevailed just before the voting
for the SL Budget 2007. Mangala Samaraweera expected several MP’s to cross
over from the Government side to the opposition; even the JVP expected the
same. Wimal Weerawansa and his supporters saved the government on that
occasion. When the defectors knew that Govt will not lose, their whole
operation was deflated. Even the current JVP did not vote against the govt
and abstained from the vote. Poor Anura Bandarnayake did not have a clue
of the situation and got seated with the opposition.
If the Govt lost the budget on that day, would you like to imagine the situation of the country now? Most probably Prabhakaran & LTTE would have captured part of the country by now.
3 Destruction of large LTTE ships in 2007
In 2007,SL Navy destroyed the several large LTTE ships which were
carrying arms and ammunition,in the high seas. It dealt a severe blow to
the LTTE’s international arms shipment network and drastically reduced its
fire power. This was a major turning point of the war. This was the first
time our small Navy went out of our water and completed a major operation
successfully.
What would have happened if that operation failed? Who would get the
blame? .Of course President, Defense Secretary and Navy Commander would be
the prime targets for the blame & ridicule. The opposition along with LTTE
would have started a campaign and toppled the Government. Most probably,
Prabhakaran would be running his Eelam by now.
General Fonseka was not in the scene at the all.
4 UN Security Council in 2009
Even though the physical war was going on within SL, there was another
battle that continued on outside SL. Most of theWestern nations (US, UK,
France, Norway, Sweden, etc) were using all their diplomatic fronts to
stop the war and come to a political settlement.Several times LTTE
Diaspora with the help of the West tried to include SL conflict into the
Security Council agenda, but failed because of China, Russia & Vietnam.
Here again credit lies with the Rajapaksa regime for backing the correct
horse. Right from the beginning, Mahinda and the Govt had a very good
relationship with China, Russia & India and that paved the way for their
support.
If the LTTE Diaspora & West won at the UN Security Council, most probably
UN would have sent a Peace Keeping Force and that would have been the
birth of Eelam.
