Future of Sri Lanka

Y2K

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Sri Lanka Country Overview 2008

Sri Lanka’s long running armed conflict is an important stumbling block to long-term development and poverty alleviation in Sri Lanka. The conflict has deep historical roots, and involves multiple issues such as ethnicity and access to economic opportunities. In 2007, the Government has gained control of the Eastern Province but battles still continue in the North.

Despite the conflict, economic growth has averaged 4.9 percent annually since 1977, partly bolstered by broad-based liberalization initiated more than three decades ago. In the last couple of years, growth has averaged about 7 percent per annum, but high inflation and a widening current account deficit are emerging areas of concern.

Poverty in Sri Lanka has declined rapidly in the past five years to 15.2 percent of the population according to the most recent data from the Department of Census and Statistics. However, poverty in the estate sector remains a serious concern. Sri Lanka is on track to achieve most MDG targets, but now faces the challenge of achieving quality, relevance and sustainability in key public services

Development challenges

Sri Lanka’s main development challenges, as emphasized in the Government’s 10-year Development Framework, are to accelerate growth through increased investment in infrastructure, to achieve a more equitable development through assistance to the lagging regions, and to strengthen public service delivery to ensure quality and performance of services to meet modern development needs. There is also a significant need for developing the North and the East which have suffered disproportionally from the conflict and lack of investments. At the same time, the Government faces the challenge of stabilizing the economy by reducing inflation and the fiscal deficit, while aiming at higher growth for a sustained period.

The World Bank in Sri Lanka

The new World Bank Country Assistance Strategy was prepared in broad consultation with Sri Lankan communities, and will guide our work from 2009 to 2012. Its main strategic objectives are threefold. The first is to create opportunities for equitable growth and economic development, especially in lagging regions of the country. The second is to help Sri Lanka accelerate economic growth by improving competitiveness, and the investment climate and the third is to help the country ensure that service delivery is effective and accountable to citizens.

A new feature of the strategy is a “conflict filter” designed to help the World Bank ensure that its support is insulated from possible distortions by the ongoing conflict. Just as important, opportunities to address the causes and consequences of conflict will be proactively identified during the implementation of the strategy.

- Source Worldbank

My question to Elakiri member is can we end this war and can Our President Develop the country ???
 

Y2K

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Outlook for 2008-09

* Conflict will remain intense as the government pursues a military campaign against the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE, Tamil Tigers). The frequency of LTTE attacks, including those on civilian targets, will rise.
* Peace negotiations will make little headway despite the professed support of the opposition United National Party for the government's plans to devolve more authority to provincial councils.
* The president, Mahinda Rajapakse, and his brothers will continue to dominate the government. The United People's Freedom Alliance administration is expected to remain in power in 2008-09.
* As both domestic and external demand are cooling, real economic growth will slow to 4% in 2008 from 6.8% in 2007, before recovering to 4.5% in 2009.
* Consumer price inflation is expected to remain rapid, averaging 21.1% in 2008 before easing to 12.2% in 2009 as global oil and food price pressures recede.
* High oil prices will force the current-account deficit up, reaching the equivalent of 5.7% of GDP in 2008 and 4.9% in 2009.
* Partly owing to the strength of remittances, and partly to government policy, the Economist Intelligence Unit now expects the local currency to appreciate by an average of 2.1% in 2008.
* We believe that Sri Lanka's economic outlook faces strong downside risks—the exchange rate and investment growth are areas of particular concern.


Monthly review


* Year-on-year consumer price inflation reached 26.3% in May, the fastest in Asia.
* A former insurgent, Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan (known as Pillayan), has been sworn in as chief minister of the Eastern province, following his party's success in recent provincial elections.
* Attacks by the LTTE on civilian targets, particularly buses and trains, have continued in May and June, leaving many dead.
* From June 2nd commercial banks have been allowed to raise deposits from foreign investors.
* High global oil prices helped to push the trade deficit for the first quarter of 2008 to US$1.4bn.
* Tourist arrivals in the first four months of 2008 contracted by 1.4% year on year, owing to the poor security situation.
 

Y2K

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* The president, Mahinda Rajapakse of the People's Alliance (the largest party in the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance, or UPFA), will pursue populist policies, with an emphasis on rural development and infrastructure. Continuing political volatility and a lack of will in the UPFA make the passage of major reforms such as privatisation unlikely. The UPFA is expected to strengthen its position in parliament at the next election, despite public concern over high inflation, as the main opposition party, the United National Party, remains weak.
* The government is expected to regain control of most territory controlled by the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE, Tamil Tigers) by end-2009, paving the way for a winding down of direct conflict and an easing of security restrictions. Unless the government is able to kill the rebels' leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, however, the LTTE will continue to conduct terrorist attacks and wage guerrilla warfare. Efforts to devolve power to provincial authorities and increase the speed of economic development are unlikely to ease tensions between the Tamil minority and the Sinhalese majority in 2009-13.
* The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the budget deficit (including grants) to fall during 2011-13, to stand at 5.5% of GDP in 2013. Slippage against fiscal targets is likely, owing to the government's populist tendencies and a failure to achieve revenue-collection goals. Partly as a result of the country's reliance on aid from multilateral agencies (which are in favour of free markets), and partly as a consequence of the need to improve the fiscal position, the government may implement some economic liberalisation measures.
* GDP growth will average around 5.4% a year in 2009-13. The services sector will remain the primary driver of the economy in this period. Annual average consumer price inflation will ease downwards to 4% in 2013. The easing of inflationary pressures will be the result of supply-side improvements, including increased local food and energy production.
* The Sri Lanka rupee will be vulnerable in 2009 owing to security concerns and high inflation. Moreover, the currency could come under pressure amid the ongoing disruption affecting global financial markets. However, depreciation will slow to manageable rates in 2010-13, taking the exchange rate to an average of SLRs134:US$1 in 2013, compared with SLRs108.1:US$1 in 2008. The current-account deficit will average 4.7% of GDP a year in 2009-13, mainly owing to a large trade deficit. Rising tourism exports will help to reduce the current-account deficit (as a percentage of GDP) later in the forecast period.


Key indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP growth (%) 5.3 4.2 5.1 6.0 6.2 6.4
Consumer price inflation (av; %) 21.8 13.0 7.4 6.2 5.4 4.0
Budget balance (% of GDP) -6.4 -6.6 -7.0 -6.3 -5.8 -5.5
Current-account balance (% of GDP) -4.7 -4.9 -5.1 -4.6 -4.0 -4.0
Lending rate (av; %) 19.0 15.5 11.7 11.2 10.4 11.4
Exchange rate SLRs:US$ (av) 108.1 115.7 121.6 125.8 129.8 134.0
Exchange rate SLRs:¥(av) 1.021 1.123 1.238 1.327 1.384 1.430
 

Y2K

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Mcahn dan me anduwe target eka Civil war eka finish karanna ... Economy eka passe ok wewi hariyata wada karoth ... War expenses adu unama eke wasiya janathawata himiwiya uthui ne will see

Hope & Pray !!!