Why This Could Pressure Sri Lanka
- Apparel is Sri Lanka's flagship export to the EU (a big share of its total exports). Losing relative price competitiveness could erode market share, especially as global brands diversify under "China Plus One" strategies and now include India more aggressively.
- Similar concerns have already surfaced with India's other FTAs (e.g., India-UK deal impacting Sri Lankan apparel to the UK).
- Sri Lanka's GSP+ status remains valuable but is conditional and periodically reviewed (current scheme valid until 2027, with ongoing monitoring). It doesn't offer the broader, locked-in certainty of a full FTA.
- The advantage won't be overnight — full implementation may take until early 2027 after ratifications, with some phasing.
- Sri Lanka could still compete on quality, ethical/sustainable production, speed (proximity advantages), or niche strengths.
- Broader factors like production costs, logistics, and currency play roles beyond tariffs.