Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="rapa" data-source="post: 93827" data-attributes="member: 212">Government has declared their opinion on the North/East de-merger verdict (by supreme court), yesterday in parliament. According to the statement made by PM, government plans to conduct a referendum in the 2 provinces, to decide whether to merge the two provinces or not. Yes, it's more democratic than merging them by a gazette order, or merging them by military powers.But the problem is the structure of the referendum to be conducted. Is it a one referendum for both the provinces, or 2 separate referendums for 2 provinces?According to my knowledge, it's going to be a one referendum for both provinces at once. That is you ask the people of North and East, whether you like to be as a one province or rather be as 2 provinces.Now the fundamental question is, "which province is going to be merged to which?" Is it "East merging to North?" or "North merging to East?". This question may sound bit silly for some people but it's a question worthwhile asking.For the people who know the history of the North Eastern crisis, it's not a secret that "It's the East that going to be merged to North". Because, according to the historic homeland theory of Tamil separatists in North, East is a part of their homeland. So they want it to be merged to North.In such a scenario, the MOST DEMOCRATIC move would be to conduct a separate referendum in East, to ask the people in East "Do you liked to be merged to North?"Because, people in East have a democratic right to have their own provincial government, and they should have the right of deciding whether to be merged with North or not.In a simple "fantasy" example imagine if a referendum is to be conducted whether to merge India and Sri Lanka as a one country and making Sri Lanka another state of India. Now, if we conduct the referendum in both the countries parallel, the outcome is obvious! More democratic method would be to conduct the referendum in Sri Lanka only. (Ok, it was just a fantasy example!)This is the method used in EU, when individual countries decided whether to take part in European parliament or not.Let's take the results of last general election simulated to a common referendum to both provinces and 2 separate referendum to 2 provinces . There are few assumptions to take into account.1) There are 2 political forces in North and East. With TNA/LTTE or Against TNA/LTTE2) TNA stands for a merged North East3) Other parties in Eastern province prefer a de-merger4) No free and fair election in LTTE held areas. (i.e, TNA LTTE fill all the ballot boxes with "YES" votes for a merger)5) People (and thugs) who voted (filled the ballot boxes) for TNA in last election, will do the same. YES to a merged province.6) People who voted against TNA will vote for a NO to a merger. (I know. Some people who voted other Tamil parties like EPDP, may vote yes. Just take this as an assumption)Now below is a summary of election results in these 2 provinces in last general election.<img src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/979/2991/320/N%26E.jpg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />According to this result, you can see if the referendum is conducted in both the provinces as a common referendum, the end result would be a "YES" for merger, where as majority of the Eastern province voted for a "NO" merger.In this case, the higher bargaining power of north, is the deciding factor in a merger or a demerger. Ultimately it's the decision of North. Not the East. Any guarantee that we will not have any problems in East in the future????So, this is why I believe the referendum for a merger or de-merger of North and East should be conducted only in East. Because, it's their democratic rights are in the risk, if merged to North as a one province.</blockquote>

Verification: Payakata winadi keeyak tibeda?

Top Bottom