The entry of General Sarath Fonseka into the political fray has certainly jolted the political establishment and turned what once might have been a near one horse race for the presidency into a real contest. The most recent elections of the Central and Southern Provincial Councils have given the SLFP led UPFA a near seventy percent (70%) vote with the UNP led opposition trailing at around thirty percent (30%). General Fonseka would have to account for a national constituency swing in excess of twenty percent (20%) to pull off a victory. In other words, one in every five voters or nearly one in every three UPFA supporters would have to change their minds and switch their votes for a Sarath Fonseka led UNF victory. Rarely in the annals of democratic societies and elections the world over have voters swung so widely based on a popular personality and devoid of some major national catastrophe. Also the general is challenging a hugely popular president, who has seen his own approval ratings steadily rise in tandem with the success on the war against LTTE terrorism.
However, the entry of General Sarath Fonseka into the race has made one major shift in the political balance, the credit for the war victory is now going to be claimed by both the incumbent and the challenger. The Sinhala nationalist vote which was earlier a monopoly of the UPFA is now going to be divided between the governing UPFA and the opposition UNF. Both are going to court the Sinhala nationalist vote and many traditional UNF constituencies such as the urban middle class which had deserted the UNF are now likely to be wooed back.
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