Brigadier Udaya Perera, Sri Lankan army director of operations, presents a map of the island nation comparing the military situation two years ago with that of today.
In July 2006, territory occupied by the Tamil Tiger insurgents, shown on the brigadier’s map in red, dominated the north and east of the teardrop-shaped island and extended down its coasts, almost enclosing the government-held south.
A second map shows the situation two years on, with the military’s gains coloured in blue. Government forces have recaptured most of the coast and the rebels have been driven back deep into their northern heartland.
“Now all those red patches have become blue,” Brig Perera told a media briefing on the sidelines of a south Asian leaders summit last week.
Sri Lanka’s government says it is closer to victory than at any time in the past decade in its 25-year civil war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the separatist group fighting for an ethnic Tamil homeland in the island’s north and east.
An end to one of south Asia’s bloodiest and most potentially destabilising conflicts would be welcomed by Sri Lanka’s people, its neighbours and the west.
But diplomats say the LTTE, one of the world’s most expert guerrilla and terrorist outfits, cannot be written off until its last cadres are either dead or have surrendered, particularly Veluppillai Prabhakaran, its elusive leader.
“It’s not at all certain that the government can win this militarily even if they occupy all of the territory,” said one diplomat in Colombo. “Holding territory may not be essential to the Tigers. They can still carry out hit-and-run attacks and, of course, terrorism.”
Sri Lanka’s bitter conflict is of concern to India, the US and Europe, which officially classify the Tigers as terrorists, because of their large ethnic Tamil populations.
The current wave of fighting follows the collapse of a ceasefire signed by the government, which today is dominated by hardliners from the majority Buddhist Sinhalese community, and the LTTE in 2002. After a succession of incidents, the conflict reignited in July 2006. The military quickly captured the east and, after a stalemate, recently also began making the inroads into the north.
Even as Mahinda Rajapakse, Sri Lanka’s president, was welcoming Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, and other leaders from the subcontinent to Colombo for the annual South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation leaders’ summit, troops far to the north were crossing into Kilinochchi district, where the Tigers have their jungle capital.
Brig Perera claims the military has reduced the Tigers’ strength from 12,000 fighters in 2006 to 5,000 today. But analysts question the government’s claims, saying that if one added up all the army’s claimed LTTE casualties, the rebels would not exist any more.
Iqbal Athas, a writer for Jane’s Defence Weekly in Colombo, said there were signs the Tigers’ withdrawal in the north could be strategic. Some believe they have been attacking the numerically stronger military with artillery fire while keeping their hardened cadres in reserve for a showdown near Kilinochchi.
He warned that if this were true, the conflict would escalate sharply in the next few months. “It’s like taking a cat and locking it in a room and then trying to catch it. It will become ferocious,” Mr Athas said.
Others worry that even if the military does prevail on the battlefield, the government needs to do more to formulate an acceptable political solution guaranteeing equal rights and autonomy for the Tamil community. Otherwise the terrorist problem will persist.
The other issue for Mr Rajapakse’s government is how long voters in the south will support the war. For now they are willing to tolerate Sri Lanka’s economic problems – inflation, for instance, is among the highest in Asia, at about 27 per cent – on the promise that victory is imminent.
Government officials this year predicted victory by December but that now looks unlikely. When pressed on whether the war would drag on beyond 2009, Keheliya Rambukwella, the defence spokesman, said: “I don’t personally believe it. I think it [victory] is within reach.”
FT
In July 2006, territory occupied by the Tamil Tiger insurgents, shown on the brigadier’s map in red, dominated the north and east of the teardrop-shaped island and extended down its coasts, almost enclosing the government-held south.
A second map shows the situation two years on, with the military’s gains coloured in blue. Government forces have recaptured most of the coast and the rebels have been driven back deep into their northern heartland.
“Now all those red patches have become blue,” Brig Perera told a media briefing on the sidelines of a south Asian leaders summit last week.
Sri Lanka’s government says it is closer to victory than at any time in the past decade in its 25-year civil war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the separatist group fighting for an ethnic Tamil homeland in the island’s north and east.
An end to one of south Asia’s bloodiest and most potentially destabilising conflicts would be welcomed by Sri Lanka’s people, its neighbours and the west.
But diplomats say the LTTE, one of the world’s most expert guerrilla and terrorist outfits, cannot be written off until its last cadres are either dead or have surrendered, particularly Veluppillai Prabhakaran, its elusive leader.
“It’s not at all certain that the government can win this militarily even if they occupy all of the territory,” said one diplomat in Colombo. “Holding territory may not be essential to the Tigers. They can still carry out hit-and-run attacks and, of course, terrorism.”
Sri Lanka’s bitter conflict is of concern to India, the US and Europe, which officially classify the Tigers as terrorists, because of their large ethnic Tamil populations.
The current wave of fighting follows the collapse of a ceasefire signed by the government, which today is dominated by hardliners from the majority Buddhist Sinhalese community, and the LTTE in 2002. After a succession of incidents, the conflict reignited in July 2006. The military quickly captured the east and, after a stalemate, recently also began making the inroads into the north.
Even as Mahinda Rajapakse, Sri Lanka’s president, was welcoming Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, and other leaders from the subcontinent to Colombo for the annual South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation leaders’ summit, troops far to the north were crossing into Kilinochchi district, where the Tigers have their jungle capital.
Brig Perera claims the military has reduced the Tigers’ strength from 12,000 fighters in 2006 to 5,000 today. But analysts question the government’s claims, saying that if one added up all the army’s claimed LTTE casualties, the rebels would not exist any more.
Iqbal Athas, a writer for Jane’s Defence Weekly in Colombo, said there were signs the Tigers’ withdrawal in the north could be strategic. Some believe they have been attacking the numerically stronger military with artillery fire while keeping their hardened cadres in reserve for a showdown near Kilinochchi.
He warned that if this were true, the conflict would escalate sharply in the next few months. “It’s like taking a cat and locking it in a room and then trying to catch it. It will become ferocious,” Mr Athas said.
Others worry that even if the military does prevail on the battlefield, the government needs to do more to formulate an acceptable political solution guaranteeing equal rights and autonomy for the Tamil community. Otherwise the terrorist problem will persist.
The other issue for Mr Rajapakse’s government is how long voters in the south will support the war. For now they are willing to tolerate Sri Lanka’s economic problems – inflation, for instance, is among the highest in Asia, at about 27 per cent – on the promise that victory is imminent.
Government officials this year predicted victory by December but that now looks unlikely. When pressed on whether the war would drag on beyond 2009, Keheliya Rambukwella, the defence spokesman, said: “I don’t personally believe it. I think it [victory] is within reach.”
FT
