Who will win?


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Dec 3, 2006
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Boralesgamuwa
Nielsen gives Lee hope of final Test recall

Tim Nielsen has not discounted the prospect of Brett Lee making a surprise return for the Ashes decider at The Oval should conditions prove conducive for reverse swing. Hot and dry weather is predicted for London for the three days immediately preceding the fifth Test - an ideal forecast for "Irish" movement - and Nielsen said Lee's old ball prowess could yet count in his favour at the selection table.

Reverse swing played a major role in England's Ashes triumph four years ago, but has hardly figured over the course of this cooler, wetter summer. By far the most potent display of old ball movement this series was that obtained by Lee in Australia's pre-Ashes warm-up against England Lions, during which he claimed 6 for 76 in the first innings, but an injury sustained in the latter stages of that match has thus far prevented him from playing any role in the Test series.

Ricky Ponting, writing in a newspaper column this week, observed that The Oval was the one English venue at which the Australians anticipated reverse swing, "especially if we have a dry, hot week." Nielsen echoed those sentiments on Monday, prompting speculation that Lee could be contender for Australia's final bowling berth.

"I think if it does reverse he'll very much put his hand up," Nielsen said. "Historically it's a drier surface that does bounce and carry a bit and those sort of conditions can help the ball get scuffed up, which everyone knows helps it reverse. When that's happening Brett is as good an exponent of [reverse swing] as anyone in the world. As long as he's fit and gets through the next three days and the conditions suit, he'll very much come into contention to play."

Lee was Australia's leading wicket-taker during the most recent tour match in Canterbury, although appeared somewhere short of peak form in his first competitive outing in six weeks. He struggled for rhythm in his opening spell on Saturday evening, but found both speed and movement the following day to finish with figures of 3-37 from 16 overs.

"He bowled with good pace, swung the new ball away then had some success reversing it in Canterbury," Nielsen noted. "All the things he brings to the table are really positive. He's very much putting his hand up for selection.

Lee will presumably battle Stuart Clark and Nathan Hauritz for Australia's fourth bowling slot, both of whom bring compelling cases to the selection table. Clark played a leading role in Australia's first innings rout of England at Headingley last week, providing the accuracy and veteran presence lacking on tour to that point. Hauritz, meanwhile, has taken 10 wickets at 32.10 at Sophia Gardens, Cardiff and Edgbaston, and would offer the Australian attack an added dimension as The Oval pitch deteriorates.

Nielsen said the final decision would be strongly influenced by surface conditions. "The team that played so well at Headingley has obviously given us a real quandary," he said. "It's a nice one, obviously, to be able to go into a Test match with our full squad available and playing well. We'll have a look in the wicket today. Over the next two days we'll see how it does change and once we get a feel on it we'll make a decision on what the squad will be.

"We're trying to be sensible and calm and make the best decisions about what the best team is for the conditions we play in. I expect that if the wicket looks like it will bounce and carry it will bring the fast bowlers into the game. The big thing is to ensure that we've got the balance right for a wicket that will obviously deteriorate over the five days. My understanding is the forecast is pretty good so with a bit of sun around it will dry up over the time of the game."

Clive Stephens, Surrey's operations director, predicted The Oval's veteran groundsman, Bill Gordon, would produce an even, well-grassed surface that would assist batsmen over the first three days and deteriorate thereafter. Stephens was not, however, optimistic that reverse swing would play a major factor in the fifth Test.

"I don't think so this year," said Stephens, when asked whether old ball movement had been prevalent during Surrey's home games this season. "Whether reverse swing will come into it, I don't know, but we're aiming to do out there is to provide a great wicket and a great outfield that sets the stage for a great competition."
 
Dec 3, 2006
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Boralesgamuwa
The Ashes at stake in Oval battle

For the second time in four years, the destination of the Ashes will be decided at the same venue where the legend was conceived way back in 1882. In 2005, The Oval in South London was the stage for one of the most wildly celebrated draws of all time, as a jittery England overcame their final-day nerves, thanks to an eye-poppingly aggressive 158 from Kevin Pietersen, a performance that carried his team clear of disaster and all the way to an open-top bus parade through Trafalgar Square the following morning.

This time, Pietersen will not be around to mop his colleagues' brows - his dodgy right Achilles underwent surgery after the second Test, and he might not even be fit in time for the tour to South Africa this winter. Instead, all of England's hopes and prayers are invested in their other modern-day colossus, Andrew Flintoff, who missed the fourth-Test debacle at Headingley due to doubts about his right knee, but is certain to be thrust into the fray for what is scheduled to be his final Test appearance.

Flintoff has said that success in this summer's Ashes would be an achievement to surpass even his magnificent performance four years ago, and those sentiments have been echoed by Australia's captain, Ricky Ponting, who has spent most of the year playing down the significance of that defeat, but has now gone on record as saying that this week is the perfect opportunity for vengeance. The quality of the cricket may not have touched the heights we saw when Australia were last on England's shores, but the level of competitiveness has scarcely diminished a notch.
 
Dec 3, 2006
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Boralesgamuwa
Punters stake $70 million on Oval Test

The Ashes decider at The Oval may well be the most eagerly anticipated contest in recent memory, for fans, media and the players themselves. But the fifth Test will have a lot more riding on it than just the destination of the famous urn or bragging rights for the next couple of years. Informed estimates suggest that punters around the world may have staked well over US$70 million on the result of the Test - and thus the series - beginning today.

The sheer volume of money at stake would also explain why an Australian player was approached by a bookie after the Lord's Test.

Betfair, the leading P2P (person to person) betting exchange based in the UK, had already matched bets worth US$4.8 million by Wednesday afternoon. Given that Betfair generally accounts for nearly half of the total volume logged in the UK, the total betting on the winner of the Ashes series will far exceed the figure of US$10 million by the time the first ball is bowled at the Oval. And though cricket may not yet have taken off on the continent, betting on it is surprisingly energetic, with approximately US$3 million placed on the result.

However, these figures are dwarfed by those coming out of the illegal betting market in India, as befits the financial centre of the game. It is estimated that each of the preceding four Ashes Tests has seen between US$30 million and US$41 million (Rs 150-200 crore) wagered on the result. For the series win (called 'cup betting' in India), those figures increase to between US$50-61 million (Rs 250-300 crore). Indian bookies, like their English counterparts, have sensed the series shift in momentum towards Australia; on Wednesday afternoon, the odds on Australia winning at The Oval on the Indian market were 2.40, England winning it 4 to 1 and a draw at 1.25. Betfair (on Thursday, hours before the start), offered odds of an Australian win at 2.42, England 5.2 and a draw 2.5.

These amounts are restricted only to match and series winner, however, and once the Test begins much more will be wagered. For most in India, the popular bets are on the result, and about 95% of the estimated 1.5 million regular punters place their money on this. However, some bookies and very big punters bet huge amounts between themselves on what is called "fancy sauda". This can be on anything, from estimating innings scores, top scorers or wicket-takers and staking from Rs 100-10,000 per run against the difference in team totals. It can take in small details, such as who will bowl the next over from which end and how many runs will be scored in an over, or off the next delivery. Putting a realistic figure on these transactions is difficult and though there are very few punters involved in this, the stakes can often be very high.

Bookmakers, such as Ladbrokes and William Hill, used to stop taking bets after the toss in any match. But once they discovered how bookies from the subcontinent actually made more money after matches had begun, on fancy sauda, they too embraced the system. Thus 'In Play' betting - placing bets when the Test begins, where odds are re-worked with every ball bowled, every run scored - now accounts for the largest chunk of betting on any contest.

Though the figures for the last Test seem impressive, the decider is actually thought to be a low-volume contest in India. There are two reasons for this. One, this is a decider, so the winner (if it does not end in a draw) of this Test and the series is going to be the same, and since there are bets already riding on the series winner category, it does not make much sense for them to increase the ante. Two, New Zealand's series with Sri Lanka has diverted the hearts and wallets of punters not only in the subcontinent, but also to an extent in Europe, where bets over US$5 million had already been placed by the second day of the Test. In India, sources estimate that nearly US$80 million (Rs400 crore) are already placed on the first Test, and nearly US$60 million (Rs300 crore) on the series winner.
 
Dec 3, 2006
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Boralesgamuwa
Bell fronts up for England

Ian Bell withstood the pressure of the big occasion to a degree he has never previously managed in his 49-Test career, to carry England's hopes of a competitive first innings on the first day of the decisive fifth Test at The Oval. By tea, Bell had eased along to 72 from 136 balls, having emerged from a torrid first session to settle into a composed and mature performance. Alongside him at the break was the debutant Jonathan Trott, who came close to running himself out in search of his first run, but eventually got off the mark from his 12th delivery, to wild cheers from the crowd.

England's tea-time scoreline of 180 for 3 represented a steady position, nothing more, but compared to their travails on the opening day of the fourth Test at Headingley, it was riches beyond compare. On that occasion they had been rolled over for 102 and drummed out of the contest inside two sessions. This time, they used the same period of time to lay a platform on a slow wicket which was nevertheless showing early signs of breaking up. When Ricky Ponting turned to the part-time spin of Marcus North in the final half-hour of the session, he might already have been regretting the omission of the specialist spinner, Nathan Hauritz.

The backbone of England's performance was Bell, for whom this was his sixth half-century in his last eight Tests against Australia, but by some distance his most significant. He came to the crease as early as the sixth over, when Alastair Cook's poor series continued with a prod to second slip off Peter Siddle, and immediately the ghosts of his 2005 performance appeared to flood his mind, and those of the Australian bowlers, as he came within a whisker of picking up his third Ashes duck in a row at the venue, when Siddle crashed a fifth-ball bouncer into his wrist.

Utilising a new, more upright stance to combat the lbw threat from the swinging ball, Bell at first looked distinctly uncomfortable against the short ball, as Australia sensed an opportunity to blast him from the crease. Mitchell Johnson, confirming the return to form that earned him five wickets at Headingley, produced a searingly quick first over with three consecutive rib-ticklers, the last of which would have hopped off Bell's gloves and straight into the hands of the vacant leg gully.

But Bell survived, and even began to thrive with Siddle offering him room to work the ball off his toes into the leg-side. However, the introduction of Stuart Clark posed a new threat. Throttling his pace right back to the high 70mphs, Clark settled into a tight and restrictive off-stump line, and a frustrated Bell might have been caught in the gully as he snatched a rare hint of width and skewed a drive through third man for four. But to his credit, he did not buckle and raced through the 30s with a brace of fours off Hilfenhaus, as the undisputed class of his strokeplay began to become the decisive factor in his performance.

At the other end, virtually unnoticed as Bell took the heat of the bowling, was Andrew Strauss, seemingly aloof to the big-match nerves, just as he had been on this ground in 2005 when he rose above the occasion to set England's platform with a first-day century. He was given a range of welcome sighters when Ben Hilfenhaus served up his most disappointing new-ball spell of the summer, then hurtled to his third half-century of the series with three fours in an over from Siddle, including a sublime clip off the toes to finish.

But the second session had barely begun when Strauss gave his great start away, hanging a limp bat outside off to his seventh delivery after the break, and grazing a low nick through to Brad Haddin off Hilfenhaus. It later transpired that the wicket-taking delivery should have been called as a massive no-ball, but it was a rare case of batsman error in a previously blemish-free performance. Strauss departed, head bowed, for 55 from 101 balls, and England were teetering just a fraction on 114 for 2.

Out to the middle came another promoted batsman, Paul Collingwood, who memorably made a double-century against Australia at Adelaide in 2006-07 while batting at No. 4, and the move up the order appeared to have focussed his mind after a limp run of innings since his match-saving 74 at Cardiff. While Bell provided the embellishment during an attritional but vital afternoon of accumulation, Collingwood played the sheet anchor, reaching 24 from 65 balls before his weakness outside off stump once again resurfaced, as he squirted a fat edge to Mike Hussey in the gully off Siddle.