University of Colombo & Kelaniya- Pre Poll Research Results 9 Oct 2019
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* Total sample size: 30,000
* Area : All island
* Age groups: Total voter base
Key Findings:
1. GR - 51% | SP - 48% | Other- 1%
2. Undecided:
Approx. 18% of all voters (2.2 M)
3. Youth (18-28): GR- 55% | SP-45%
4. GR Major disadvantage:
A. Family & nepotism
B. 'Racist' rhetoric and position
C. Mistrust amongst minorities
D. US citizenship issue
E. Past acts (allegations of serious crime)
GR advantage
A. Commands 40% of far-right Sinhala-Buddhist vote
5. SP major disadvantages
A. Stated position that Ranil Wickramasinghe remains PM
B. Jalani Premadasa involved in decision-making (49% of total social media attacks aimed at him, connected with her)
C. Poorly prepared speeches
D. Very poor campaign so far
SP advantage:
A. Block UNP vote
B. No allegations of corruption
6. Important: Impact of SLFP support expected to be minimal (0.8-1% variance)
7. Conclusion:
- Very tight race; depends on voter-turnout
- Premadasa at an advantage as campaign kicks into gear: can cover gap quickly
- If gap widens by 9% over next two weeks, statistical probability of GR win very high; but to achieve this only possible through minority vote base
Early Prediction:
Premadasa win by 50.04%, with 70% voter turnout.
