Coronavirus Cases:
7,814
Deaths:
170
Quick Facts 7,814
Deaths:
170
:
The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV, or Wuhan coronavirus) has spread to 21 countries and territories worldwide, with 7,814 confirmed cases and 170 deaths as of January 30, 2020 00:20 UTC.
In the United States, there are 5 cases confirmed by the CDC: 1 in Arizona, 2 in California, 1 in Washington state, and 1 in Illinois. More info.
Wuhan (the city where the virus originated) is the largest city in Central China, with a population of over 11 million people. The city, On January 23, shut down transport links. Following Wuhan lockdown, the city of Huanggang was also placed in quarantine, and the city of Ezhou has closed its train stations. This means than 18 million people have been placed in isolation. The World Health Organization said cutting off a city as large as Wuhan is "unprecedented in public health history."[12] and praised China for its incredible commitment to isolate the virus and minimize the spread to other countries.
Germany, Japan and Vietnam have reported the first cases in patients who didn't personally visit China, but contracted the virus from someone else who had visited Wuhan, China[15]. These cases of human to human transmission are the most worrisone, according to the WHO
A pathogen’s harmfulness is determined by the combination of its transmission rate (Ro, reproductive number) and its case fatality rate.
How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus?
The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person.
For the Wuhan Coronavirus, this parameter is estimated to be between 2.0 and 3.1, according to preliminary studies [5][6], with one study providing an estimate of 2.6 with an uncertainty range of: 1.5-3.5[7]. The WHO noted on January 23 that human-to-human transmission was occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5[13]. Based on these Ro estimates, on average every case of Wuhan Coronavirus would create between 2 and 3 new cases. An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.
Fatality Rate (case fatality ratio or CFR) of the Wuhan Coronavirus
The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate is currently estimated at around 3%[9] (between 2% and 4%). However, once the province Hubei (where the epicenter Wuhan is situated) is removed from the calculation, the national (China) mortality rate drops to 0.3%. Within the Hubei province, the mortality rate is about 1% when excluding the city of Wuhan (where it is 5.5%).
Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.
For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu is less than 0.01% (1 death per every 10,000 cases)[7]. Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.
Incubation Period (how long it takes for symptoms to appear)
The Wuhan novel coronavirus appears to be contagious before symptoms appear, as it is estimated to have an incubation period of 10 to 14 days, according to Ma Xiaowei, the director of China’s National Health Commission[11].
The United States' CDC estimates the incubation period for 2019-nCoV to be between 2 and 14 days [10].
This means that symptoms of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14, during which the virus is contagious but the patient does not display any symptom (asymptomatic transmission).
WHO Risk Assessment
China: Very High
Region: High
Global: High
Not an International Health Emergency
The WHO hasn't declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The WHO emergency committee has convened twice [13] (on January 22, and January 23) and has twice declined to make such a declaration.
On January 29, the WHO announced it was reconvening Emergency Committee on January 30, 2020 [14].
Comparisons:
Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
SARS (Nov. 2002 - Jul. 2003): was a coronavirus that originated from Beijing, China, spread to 29 countries, with 8,096 people infected and 774 deaths (with a fatality rate of 9.6%). Considering that SARS ended up infecting 5,237 people in mainland China, Wuhan Coronavirus surpassed SARS on January 29, 2020, when Chinese officials confirmed 5,974 cases of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
MERS (2012) killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected (with a fatality rate of 34.4%).
Sources
- Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports - World Health Organization (WHO)
- 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the U.S -. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
- Outbreak Notification - National Health Commission (NHC) of the People’s Republic of China
- Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - Australian Government Department of Health
- Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic prediction - Jonathan M. Read et al, Jan. 23,2020.
- Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China - Maimuna Majumder and Kenneth D. Mandl, Harvard University - Computational Health Informatics Program - Posted: 24 Jan 2020 Last revised: 27 Jan 2020
- Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV - 25 January 2020 - Imperial College London
- Case fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1pdm09): a systematic review - Epidemiology. Nov. 24, 2013
- A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern - Chen Want et al. The Lancet. January 24, 2020
- Symptoms of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - CDC
- China's National Health Commission news conference on coronavirus - Al Jazeera. January 26, 2020
- Wuhan lockdown 'unprecedented', shows commitment to contain virus: WHO representative in China - Reuters. January 23, 2020
- Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - WHO, January 23, 2020
- International Health Regulations Emergency Committee on novel coronavirus in China - WHO, January 30, 2020
- Human-to-human transmission of Wuhan virus outside of China, confirmed in Germany, Japan and Vietnam - The Online Citizen, Jan. 29, 2020
- Who: "Live from Geneva on the new #coronavirus outbreak"
Preventionhttp://www.mri.gov.lk/2020/01/25/cdc-about-corona-virus-infection/
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