CSE Bloodbath Checklist
- Sharp Index Decline
- Is the CSE All Share Price Index (ASPI) down 5% or more within the trading session?
- Has it dropped 10% or more, indicating a potential crash?
Note: A 10% single-day fall is a typical bloodbath benchmark (e.g., CSE halts in 2022 followed similar drops).
- Widespread Selling
- Are at least 70% of CSE-listed stocks declining?
- Are major sectors (e.g., banking, plantations, manufacturing) all down 5%+?
Note: Check sector indices or a broad sample of stocks for confirmation.
- Panic Indicators
- Is trading volume surging (e.g., 2-3x the 30-day average)?
- Has the CSE halted trading due to circuit breakers (triggered at a 10% ASPI drop)?
Note: High volume paired with steep declines points to panic selling.
- Key Stock Performance
- Are large-cap stocks with domestic focus showing unusual declines (e.g., 5%+)?
- Are export-oriented stocks dropping sharply (e.g., 15%+)?
- Are diversified firms with trade exposure down significantly (e.g., 10%+)?
Note: Export-heavy stocks are likely to lead the tariff-driven sell-off.
- Market Sentiment
- Are foreign investors net sellers (check CSE daily foreign flow data)?
- Are X posts from Sri Lankan traders/investors reflecting fear (e.g., “market collapsing,” “get out now”)?
Note: Social media sentiment on X can mirror or magnify real-time panic.
- Economic Triggers
- Has the rupee (LKR) weakened 5%+ against USD today (check Central Bank or forex platforms)?
- Are bond yields (e.g., 10-year SLTB) rising sharply, suggesting capital outflows?
Note: A tariff shock could destabilize currency and bonds, driving equity losses.
- Historical Context
- Is today’s ASPI drop among the top 5 worst single-day declines since 2022 (e.g., -13% on April 18, 2022)?
- Does it surpass the 8-10% drops typical of past crises?
Note: Compare to historical sell-offs to gauge severity.
How to Use It
- Timing: Monitor at key points—mid-session (12 PM IST) and close (2:30 PM IST)—since the tariff news hit late April 2 U.S. time, giving markets overnight to digest it.
- Threshold: If 4+ items are checked, especially sharp index falls and panic signs, it’s likely a bloodbath. A 10%+ ASPI drop with trading halts confirms it.
- Data Sources: Use cse.lk for live ASPI, stock prices, and volume; X for sentiment; Reuters/Bloomberg for currency and bonds.
Today’s Context
The 44% U.S. tariff, effective today, targets Sri Lanka’s $3 billion in U.S. exports (23% of total), heavily weighted toward apparel and tea. This could crater demand, hitting export-reliant firms hardest and rippling through the economy. With no immediate Sri Lankan countermeasure to blunt the impact, and Vietnam’s tariff cuts failing to shift U.S. policy, a strong negative market reaction is plausible. Tick these boxes throughout the day to see if it escalates to bloodbath territory.