තේරුම් ගන්න අය තේරුම් ගන්න
මේවා සිංහලෙන් දැම්ම කියල වැඩක් නෑ
සිංහලු සිංහලෙන් කියල කිසි දෙයක් හරියට කරන්නේ නෑ.
මේවා සිංහලෙන් දැම්ම කියල වැඩක් නෑ
සිංහලු සිංහලෙන් කියල කිසි දෙයක් හරියට කරන්නේ නෑ.
Science SourceKFF COVID-19 Coronavirus Tracker – Updated as of March 17, 2020Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy _ JAMAAerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)
COVID-19: Top 5 New Developments (as of March 17)
1) Today, a major study discovered how long COVID-19 stays alive outside the human body.
COVID-19 was applied to the surfaces of air, copper, cardboard, stainless steel, and plastic at 21 to 23°C, 40% relative humidity, and over 7 days.
COVID-19 was found alive on the following surfaces for the following hours:
Airborne: 3 hours
Copper: 4 hours
Cardboard: 24 hours
Steel: 72 hours
Plastic: 72 hours
If confirmed, this would make COVID-19 significantly more contagious through air (simple breathing) than through respiratory droplets (coughing/sneezing). For example, other common airborne diseases include: anthrax, measles, smallpox, and tuberculosis.
2) We don’t know exactly why but the data from Italy is much worse (higher mortality and higher severity) than compared to China.
In Italy, COVID-19 produced the following cases:
53% mild (vs 81% in China)
25% severe (vs 14% in China)
5% critical (vs 5% in China)
7% asymptomatic (vs 1% in China)
11% unspecified
Most troubling, the mortality in Italy is 7% vs 2% in China.
Overall, there were more asymptomatic cases, more severe cases, and more deaths in Italy. The commonalities between Italy and China were that children were generally safe and the elderly were the most vulnerable. For example, In Italy, 90% of all deaths occurred in those 60+ years of age.
Age is one of the most significant risk factors.
3) Researchers modeled the natural spread of COVID-19 and published a major study in the journal Science today. They found that for every detected infection, there were five or more undetected infections and that these undetected cases were still about 50% or half as contagious as the detected people.
This would explain how on February 20, 2020, a young man in the Lombardy region of Italy “was admitted with an atypical pneumonia that later proved to be COVID-19. In the next 24 hours there were 36 more cases, none of whom had contact with the first patient or with anyone known to have COVID-19.” (Livingston)
The asymptomatic carrier state infection and spread of COVID-19 would be a likely explanation for this phenomenon.
4) Detected New Cases, United States
March 14 - 545
March 15 - 770
March 16 - 1133
March 17 - 1257
Detected Total Cases, United States
March 14 - 2724
March 15 - 3494
March 16 - 4627
March 17 - 5884
If this is true, then the undetected cases are 5-fold the detected cases, and we are significantly under-counting the US numbers and have closer to nearly 30,000 total cases of COVID-19 right now as compared to the above.
5) Finally, over the last 72 hours, the doubling time for COVID-19 has remained constant at approximately 3 days for the United States from March 14th compared to March 17th.
This is the amount of time for the number of cases to double.
If this stays constant (without effective public health interventions, social distancing, quarantines), the projected total number of detected cases for the US would be as follows:
After 6 days: 23,536 cases (by March 23rd)
After 12 days: 94,144 cases (by March 29th)
After 18 days: 376,576 cases (by April 4th)
After 24 days: 1,506,304 cases (by April 10th)
If large-scale social distancing and quarantines occur and work effectively across all outbreak areas, however, the rate of the rise in cases would steadily or even drastically decline over the coming week. Ultimately, we will determine our own trajectory.
