When Putin finally addressed the nation again on Monday, he was remarkably clement. The last time he had been seen on Saturday, he told the nation that Prigozhin’s mutiny was “a stab in the back of our country and our people,” and promised to hold the insurgents “accountable.”
Now, he thanked the insurgents for making the “right decision” in halting their advance, and offered them contracts to join the Russian ministry of defense’s force. He also claimed that the “armed rebellion would have been suppressed anyway,” without specifying how.
For a leader renowned for delivering grand historical theses in hour-long tracts, Monday’s speech was terse, lasting only a few minutes – and leaving more questions than answers.
Why has Prigozhin been allowed to flee to Belarus? Why have the insurgents not been punished? And how does Putin attempt to reassert his authority?
In a bizarre and chaotic 36 hours, Prigozhin drove 800 miles from the border of Ukraine towards Moscow, captured a regional military command, stormed a large city, and claimed to have shot down a military helicopter.
Many expected Putin’s response to be swift and brutal. He said in his Saturday address that Wagner’s “treachery” was a “betrayal” of their country.
“Putin values loyalty above all else,” Dmitri Alperovitch, a member of the Homeland Security Advisory Council, told CNN. “You can steal under him, you can kill, you can be a criminal. But the one thing you cannot be is disloyal.”
Given this, Putin’s apparent reluctance to punish the insurgents seemed puzzling.
But, according to Kirill Shamiev, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Putin’s first priority will be to “demilitarize, disarm and demobilize the Wagner group,” before issuing any potential punishment.
Prigozhin must be made an example of, according to Shamiev, but it is a careful question of timing. The war in Ukraine is entering an uncertain phase: Kyiv’s counteroffensive may have gotten off to a stuttering start, but the unity and morale of Russia’s forces has come under question since the chaos of the past weekend.
If the Kremlin were to have somehow dispatched Prigozhin immediately, and Russia’s forces were to crumble in Ukraine, the Wagner chief’s criticisms may simply have been proved correct.
“It would look like, ‘Oh, Prigozhin was right, actually. He was right about the military, he was right about how unprepared and uneducated the generals are – and now they’ve killed him.’ It’s a bad look for the Kremlin,” said Shamiev.
Now, he thanked the insurgents for making the “right decision” in halting their advance, and offered them contracts to join the Russian ministry of defense’s force. He also claimed that the “armed rebellion would have been suppressed anyway,” without specifying how.
For a leader renowned for delivering grand historical theses in hour-long tracts, Monday’s speech was terse, lasting only a few minutes – and leaving more questions than answers.
Why has Prigozhin been allowed to flee to Belarus? Why have the insurgents not been punished? And how does Putin attempt to reassert his authority?
In a bizarre and chaotic 36 hours, Prigozhin drove 800 miles from the border of Ukraine towards Moscow, captured a regional military command, stormed a large city, and claimed to have shot down a military helicopter.
Many expected Putin’s response to be swift and brutal. He said in his Saturday address that Wagner’s “treachery” was a “betrayal” of their country.
“Putin values loyalty above all else,” Dmitri Alperovitch, a member of the Homeland Security Advisory Council, told CNN. “You can steal under him, you can kill, you can be a criminal. But the one thing you cannot be is disloyal.”
Given this, Putin’s apparent reluctance to punish the insurgents seemed puzzling.
But, according to Kirill Shamiev, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Putin’s first priority will be to “demilitarize, disarm and demobilize the Wagner group,” before issuing any potential punishment.
Prigozhin must be made an example of, according to Shamiev, but it is a careful question of timing. The war in Ukraine is entering an uncertain phase: Kyiv’s counteroffensive may have gotten off to a stuttering start, but the unity and morale of Russia’s forces has come under question since the chaos of the past weekend.
If the Kremlin were to have somehow dispatched Prigozhin immediately, and Russia’s forces were to crumble in Ukraine, the Wagner chief’s criticisms may simply have been proved correct.
“It would look like, ‘Oh, Prigozhin was right, actually. He was right about the military, he was right about how unprepared and uneducated the generals are – and now they’ve killed him.’ It’s a bad look for the Kremlin,” said Shamiev.
