Parliamentary Elections 2015 seem the most difficult to gauge the shift, though the trend is clearly anti UPFA with a strong stress against a Rajapaksa comeback. A few days after my previous “guess”, there were many projections from many sources including one that was in public domain as a State “intelligence” report. Most such projections indicated more or less the same result; UNP forming the government as the single largest party in parliament.
One week after my previous "guess of a sort", what is now very significant is that most, if not all district level sources predict UPFA losing 02 of the 03 Southern districts, leaving only Matara for the UPFA. Hambantota it is said is the worst for Rajapaksa. If, as some insist, the UNP had one who is actually a strong campaigner than what the media paints, UNP would do one better, leaving the JVP with only 01 seat. The most stunning prediction is that UPFA in Hambantota will have only one Rajapaksa and that will not be Namal Rajapaksa. The UPFA list they say will be topped by Mahinda Amaraweera and not by a Rajapaksa.
The other significant indication is that the JVP is expected now to gain 03 seats over and above the previous projection, giving them a total of 12 including the national list MPs.
In the East, both Trincomalee and Digamadulla can return Sinhala MPs. In 2010, UPFA got 02 Sinhala MPs elected from Trincomalee. This election it is possible, the UNP gets both MPs the TNA and SLMC sharing the other 02. In Digamadulla, UNP can retain their 02 seats while the SLMC could win 03, thus reducing UPFA to 01 and leaving the other with TNA as before.
When these are added to the Colombo based political parties, the tally would be UNP(UNFGG) – 86; UPFA – 76; JVP – 10 from the 196 MPs the people would directly elect. From the balance 24 seats in North-East provinces, the break up can be;
TNA - 16
EPDP - 01
SLMC - 04
UNP - 03 (from Vanni + Jaffna)
The 29 national list MPs will have to be added to these party totals, according to the proportion they poll from the total polled nationally. This can be very roughly UNP – 14, UPFA – 11, TNA – 01, JVP – 02, SLMC – 01
The 225 MPs in the next parliament will thus be;
UNP – 103
UPFA – 87
TNA – 17
SLMC – 05
JVP – 12
EPDP - 01
SLMC is contesting in alliance with the UNP in few selected districts outside Eat and Vanni. Therefore the 05 seats they get would directly go to the UNFGG making the total 108 for Wickramasinghe to claim the next government and the PM post.
Kusal Perera
Colombo
07 August, 2015
- http://kusalperera.blogspot.com/2015/08/hambantota-worst-district-for.html
One week after my previous "guess of a sort", what is now very significant is that most, if not all district level sources predict UPFA losing 02 of the 03 Southern districts, leaving only Matara for the UPFA. Hambantota it is said is the worst for Rajapaksa. If, as some insist, the UNP had one who is actually a strong campaigner than what the media paints, UNP would do one better, leaving the JVP with only 01 seat. The most stunning prediction is that UPFA in Hambantota will have only one Rajapaksa and that will not be Namal Rajapaksa. The UPFA list they say will be topped by Mahinda Amaraweera and not by a Rajapaksa.
The other significant indication is that the JVP is expected now to gain 03 seats over and above the previous projection, giving them a total of 12 including the national list MPs.
Code:
UNP UPFA JVP
Colombo 11 06 02
Gampaha 08 09 01
Kalutara 05 04 01
Western Province 24 19 04
Ratnapura 04 07 ---
Kegalle 06 03 ---
Sabaragamuwa 10 10
Galle 05 04 01
Matara 03 04 01
Hambantota 03 02 02
Southern Province 11 10 04
Badulla 04 03 01
Moneragala 02 03 ---
Uva Province 06 06 01
Matale 02 03 ---
Kandy 07 05 ---
Nuwara Eliya 05 03 ---
Central Province 14 11
Kurunegala 06 09 ---
Puttlam 05 03 ---
Wayamba 11 12
Anuradhapura 03 05 01
Polonnaruwa 03 02 ---
North-Central Province 06 07 01
Total from 17 districts 82 75 10In the East, both Trincomalee and Digamadulla can return Sinhala MPs. In 2010, UPFA got 02 Sinhala MPs elected from Trincomalee. This election it is possible, the UNP gets both MPs the TNA and SLMC sharing the other 02. In Digamadulla, UNP can retain their 02 seats while the SLMC could win 03, thus reducing UPFA to 01 and leaving the other with TNA as before.
When these are added to the Colombo based political parties, the tally would be UNP(UNFGG) – 86; UPFA – 76; JVP – 10 from the 196 MPs the people would directly elect. From the balance 24 seats in North-East provinces, the break up can be;
TNA - 16
EPDP - 01
SLMC - 04
UNP - 03 (from Vanni + Jaffna)
The 29 national list MPs will have to be added to these party totals, according to the proportion they poll from the total polled nationally. This can be very roughly UNP – 14, UPFA – 11, TNA – 01, JVP – 02, SLMC – 01
The 225 MPs in the next parliament will thus be;
UNP – 103
UPFA – 87
TNA – 17
SLMC – 05
JVP – 12
EPDP - 01
SLMC is contesting in alliance with the UNP in few selected districts outside Eat and Vanni. Therefore the 05 seats they get would directly go to the UNFGG making the total 108 for Wickramasinghe to claim the next government and the PM post.
Kusal Perera
Colombo
07 August, 2015
- http://kusalperera.blogspot.com/2015/08/hambantota-worst-district-for.html
