After hiatus, Rajapaksa brothers set to dominate Sri Lanka again

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After hiatus, Rajapaksa brothers set to dominate Sri Lanka again

Sanjeev Miglani, Shihar Aneez

COLOMBO (Reuters) - One brother is considered a shoo-in for the job of Sri Lanka’s president in elections this weekend and another is eyeing the prime minister’s post when that election becomes due early next year.

Two other brothers are political strategists for their Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party and one of them is considering a shot at becoming the speaker in parliament. Three men of the family’s next generation are also in politics.

The Rajapaksas, best known for the brutal defeat of separatist Tamil rebels and then drawing Sri Lanka into China’s orbit when the West and India shunned the Indian Ocean island, are back at the center of the nation’s deeply divisive politics and it is stoking fear.

While there are no formal opinion polls, former defense secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa is the hot favorite to win the presidential election this Saturday. His chief opponent Sajith Premadasa, a government minister, is seen to be trailing.

Two other brothers are political strategists for their Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party and one of them is considering a shot at becoming the speaker in parliament. Three men of the family’s next generation are also in politics.

The Rajapaksas, best known for the brutal defeat of separatist Tamil rebels and then drawing Sri Lanka into China’s orbit when the West and India shunned the Indian Ocean island, are back at the center of the nation’s deeply divisive politics and it is stoking fear.

While there are no formal opinion polls, former defense secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa is the hot favorite to win the presidential election this Saturday. His chief opponent Sajith Premadasa, a government minister, is seen to be trailing.

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Gotabaya led the operations against the Tamil Tigers when his elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa was president. Gotabaya has faced lawsuits in Sri Lanka and in the United States over allegations of staged killings of Tamil separatists, critics and journalists during the war.

Both brothers deny the allegations as part of a Western conspiracy to interfere in the island nation of 22 million that sits astride vital shipping lanes and has long been a tinder-box of tensions between the dominant Sinhalese Buddhists and minority ethnic Tamils. In recent months, Sinhalese hardliners have also targeted the tiny Muslim community.

Mahinda lost the 2015 presidential election to a cabinet colleague who turned against him - Maithripala Sirisena. After his ouster, the family’s fortunes fell into decline.

But Easter Sunday bombings on hotels and churches, in which more than 250 people were killed, derailed Sirisena’s presidency, and he has announced he will not contest this year. The attacks, claimed by Islamic State, have rekindled support for the Rajapaksas and their brand of Sinhalese nationalism.

Mahinda is barred from running for president again, and is on the stump for Gotabaya, bringing an affable touch to the campaign against the rather gruff manner of his brother, more known for his military machismo.

Another brother, Basil, handles the party finances and striking deals with rival groups while a fourth brother and former speaker, Chamal, campaigns in the family borough in the south of the island.

FAMILY PROSPECTS

Mahinda, who is currently leader of the opposition in parliament, is the obvious choice for prime minister when parliamentary elections are held early next year, said Keheliya Rambukwella, spokesman for the Gotabaya campaign.

Chamal Rajapaksa would be the choice for parliament speaker, a position he has previously held, political experts say. In all, seven members of the family are involved in politics, and some of the others could also end up in parliament.

“We are going to see family rule again, and all the excesses that came up with it the last time,” said Health Minister Rajitha Senarathne, who is opposed to the Rajapaksas. “They will suppress all dissent.”

In a front page editorial, the state-run Sunday Observer said it was “afraid” of a Gotabaya presidency and appealed to voters to make the “right choice.”

“A wrong choice will send the country hurtling toward authoritarianism and iron-fisted rule,” it said.

Gotabaya’s spokesman dismissed warnings of family rule, saying the candidate was quite clear merit will be only consideration for top political jobs.

“When Gotabaya comes to power he will appoint people with qualification to the positions, irrespective of their ties to him,” Rambukwella said.

On the campaign, Gotabaya has been uncompromising about the need to strengthen security, repeatedly raising the circumstances that led to the Easter Sunday attacks.

At a campaign rally in Wellawaye in central Sri Lanka Gotabaya said during his time as defense secretary, he had raised special military and intelligence units to tackle extremism, drug trafficking networks and the underworld. These cells had since been weakened, he said.

“There can be no higher priority than national security,” he said.

Additional reporting by Ranga Sirilal; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan
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Sri Lanka elections: In the south, hopes on Gotabaya run high
Meera Srinivasan

People here see in him a strong leader, who ended war, built infrastructure.

“I brought my child along just so he can see our leader, even if from a distance,” said Sepalika Harshani, 29, carrying her toddler under an umbrella.

She was among thousands who flocked to Wellawaya town in Sri Lanka’s southern Monaragala district on Saturday afternoon, braving the rain. They had come for the rally of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, candidate from their favourite political clan, in the final lap of the November 16 presidential poll campaign.

“I would be very happy if someone like him becomes President of this country. He got us freedom,” Ms. Harshani said, referring to the war’s end in 2009 under the Rajapaksa administration. Mr. Gotabaya, brother of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa was defence secretary, directing the military that defeated the rebel Tigers.

Nineteen-year-old A.P.D. Seuvandi, too, was there to catch a glimpse of the leader she has decided to vote for next weekend. “They saved the country,” the first-time voter said. She was barely nine when the war ended but has grown up listening to a popular story of its end; one quite different from what Tamils of the north and east would tell. “He will make the country safe again, develop it and improve education standards for us.” For many Sri Lankans, safety has become a major concern after the Easter Sunday terror attacks in April.

In the island’s southern hinterland, almost every local, including those supporting Mr. Gotabaya’s main opponent Sajith Premadasa, assert that “a majority here will vote for Gotabaya”. Past election results are proof enough for that sentiment. Even in 2015, an election that former President Mahinda Rajapaksa lost, most of the southern districts gave him over 60% of the vote share. Historically a stronghold of Mahinda Rajapaksa’s former Sri Lanka Freedom Party, the southern belt seems to have readily embraced his newly-formed the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP or People’s Party).
Diverse reasons

The reasons pulling voters towards Mr. Gotabaya this time go beyond war “victory”. Some of them are looking for respite from the everyday economic strain they associate with the incumbent government, or are utterly disenchanted with it, like daily-waged labourer D.M. Jayaratne. “This government came to power saying they would catch corrupt thieves. Nothing happened in the last five years. Instead, they robbed the Central Bank,” he said, referring to the “bond scam”, in which a former head of the apex bank was accused of manipulating bond auctions in 2015, causing a loss of millions. The scandal was a major blow to the government that rose to power months earlier, that too on the promise of “good governance”.

Further, Mr. Jayaratne sees Mr. Gotabaya as a strong leader who will not “give into Tamil demands” for war-time accountability and self-rule.
Election vs real issues

Many voters, across Monaragala [Uva Province] and the neighbouring Hambantota [Southern Province] district, began their poll analysis with a reading of the two main candidates — and less often of the leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna’s contestant Anura Kumara Dissanayake. But invariably, they spoke about pressing local concerns.

They pointed to land hunger, in the wake of mega development projects in Hambantota – a Chinese-built port and an adjoining industrial zone proposed over 15,000 acres. They worried about loss of livelihoods and falling incomes. “There are no jobs here,” was a common refrain.

The irony was glaring. While billions of rupees have been channelled into the Rajapaksa-era development projects over the last decade, locals repeatedly speak of prevalent poverty. To the outside world, Hambantota is a high-profile emerging district, and a site of a regional geo-political tussle: with a Chinese-built port and the loss-making Mattala airport nearby, that India is interested in developing. But to many who live there, the development projects are at best distant and at worst, a threat.
Hoping for change

Both, the Rajapaksas and Mr. Premadasa are closely associated with the southern districts — either by familial links, or their parliamentary seats.

The constant fear of further marginalisation is making some voters consider a shift towards Mr. Premadasa. While it may not dull the Rajapaksa sheen yet, it points to Mr. Premadasa’s growing base, especially in the rural areas.

For K. L. Pradeepa Priyadarshini, Mr. Premadasa’s candidacy brings back the hope she felt during his father Ranasinghe Premadasa’s rule in the early 1990s. “Hearing about his poverty alleviation programmes on radio, I felt here is a national leader who has finally spoken about our need for food and water,” said the Hambantota-based farmer.

“When you sit in air-conditioned rooms, you can’t feel the heat and dust that people like us feel every day.” To her, Mr. Premadasa appears different, with a largely unblemished political record and fair success as Housing Minister.
Not who, but what

Supporters of Mr. Gotabaya are nostalgic about the past. Mahinda Rajapaksa ended the war, built roads and expanded rural electricity. But those drawn to Mr. Premadasa are looking at what he might do in future.

Some voters are tired of thinking about who to vote for. They’d rather think about what to vote for.

A group of women farmers in Monaragala district are basing their decision on candidates’ manifestos. “We are looking at what they have said about women, farmers, national unity, rural debt, especially microfinance-induced debt, and education policy,” said S.A. Shanthi. They also challenged the idea of “national security” that has become a chief election issue, in the wake of the Easter bombings. To ensure national security, "we don’t need a strong leader. we just need sound policies.”

“Whose security are they talking about?” asked P.G. Podinona. “Seeing the number of security guards around some candidates, it’s obvious who feels most insecure in this country. Whereas some of us don’t even have a dog to guard us.”