Coronavirus: US could see 2,300 deaths a day, even with social distancing
Covid-19 could lead to more than 80,000 deaths in the US and overwhelm hospital capacity nationally as soon as early April even if social distancing measures are respected, new research showed on Thursday. The US death toll for the pandemic has already soared past 1,000. At least 81,321 people in the US are known to have been infected with the coronavirus, more cases than China, Italy or any other country has seen, according to data gathered by The New York Times. Forecasters at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine analysed the latest Covid-19 data at a local, national and international level. This included hospitalisation and mortality rates, as well as patient date in terms of age, gender and pre-existing health problems.
Specifically, they examined the time lag between the first fatal cases and public interventions such as closing schools and businesses. They then reviewed each American state’s ICU bed and ventilator capacity.
The analysis warned that based on current trends, demand for both would far exceed capacity for Covid-19 patients as early as the second week of April.
During the epidemic peak – also set for some point in April – as many as 2,300 patients could die every day, according to the IHME models. This was the case even if the population adhered to strict social distancing measures.
Covid-19 could lead to more than 80,000 deaths in the US and overwhelm hospital capacity nationally as soon as early April even if social distancing measures are respected, new research showed on Thursday. The US death toll for the pandemic has already soared past 1,000. At least 81,321 people in the US are known to have been infected with the coronavirus, more cases than China, Italy or any other country has seen, according to data gathered by The New York Times. Forecasters at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine analysed the latest Covid-19 data at a local, national and international level. This included hospitalisation and mortality rates, as well as patient date in terms of age, gender and pre-existing health problems.
Specifically, they examined the time lag between the first fatal cases and public interventions such as closing schools and businesses. They then reviewed each American state’s ICU bed and ventilator capacity.
The analysis warned that based on current trends, demand for both would far exceed capacity for Covid-19 patients as early as the second week of April.
During the epidemic peak – also set for some point in April – as many as 2,300 patients could die every day, according to the IHME models. This was the case even if the population adhered to strict social distancing measures.
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