Go fourth and conquer: Van Gaal's Manchester Utd face defining period
It’s up for grabs now. Despite not having finished a single round of Premier League football since December in the top four, Manchester United are just two wins away from qualifying for the Champions League.
The last time United ended a match week in fourth place, Louis van Gaal was yet to field a single question relating to Jose Mourinho’s pursuit of his job since the Portuguese was still Chelsea manager at the time. And the biggest Champions League issue for the Red Devils back on December 12 was their elimination from this season’s competition at the hands of Wolfsburg just four days earlier.
Five months on, and United head to Upton Park for the final game against West Ham at the old ground on Tuesday against the backdrop of what, for some, is a much-changed world at Old Trafford.
The constant speculation which has plagued Van Gaal since Mourinho’s Chelsea sacking coincided with United’s worst run of results in years has led many to count down the days until the Dutchman is finally shown the door.
His unattractive brand of football has raised the ire of reds all across the world, while the results have not been anywhere near consistent enough to win over the floating voters. For the large majority of season ticket holders, the fare served up since the winter has been too painful to bear.
On back pages across the globe, Mourinho’s arrival has been classified as anything from a foregone conclusion, to an agreed next step, to a monetised bond. But in Manchester there remains no hard and fast evidence that United will alter their course from the succession plan which would see Ryan Giggs succeed Van Gaal in the summer of 2017.
And reports previously claiming iron-cast links between Mourinho and United, even those claiming a £15 million get-out clause, have since been tempered by follow-ups admitting that nothing is set in stone.Van Gaal has previously reacted with anger to the unstoppable force of the Mourinho rumours.
“He has said things a number of times with a lot of words, but he does not have to tell me anything - I find the whole thing ridiculous," he said of Mourinho in February. “I don’t want United to do something either. I don't even want them to react to things which I read in the media or which are being created.“We, the club and I, are not going to help the media right now by denying things. I think what is happening is an absolute scandal.”
But the pressure has lifted in recent weeks and it was notable that during his press conference ahead of the trip to West Ham when Van Gaal thanked journalists for asking questions about the Hammers rather than his future: “It’s the first time that we are talking about our opponent and not about my sacking, so thank you for saying that!”
The truth of the matter is that United are waiting to see where they stand in the summer. Just as they made no move to dispose of David Moyes until Champions League football was officially out of the reckoning, there was never likely to be a quick decision made on Van Gaal.
And when they do come to discuss the Dutchman’s future in the summer, the financial implications of their finishing position will have as much say in their thinking as the actual league table itself.
Just as finishing fifth and losing the FA Cup final would not automatically result in Van Gaal’s removal, neither will Champions League qualification, and a win over Crystal Palace at Wembley guarantee him continued employment next term.
Sure, three victories between now and May 21 would stand him in far greater stead, but one thing that is inevitable about United right now is a lack of inevitability. Just ask those people who bought United scarves with Mourinho’s name emblazoned across them last December.
Finishing fourth would certainly stand Van Gaal in better stead. The loss of a significant proportion of the £75m annual kit deal with Adidas would have to be absorbed should United not make the Champions League, with around £23m having already been passed up thanks to the failure to move beyond the group stage this season.
Meanwhile the BT Sport contract which boosts English clubs qualifying for the Champions League does not extend so generously to the Europa League, meaning another £20m-plus shortfall. The gap between potential earnings as a Champions League club and the monetary gains from finishing fifth would stretch to well beyond £50m.
Perversely, that would only be made worse in a financial sense were United to sack Van Gaal for the failure to secure a top-four spot. The 64-year-old’s three-year contract entitles him to a pay-off should he be relieved of his services ahead of time, leaving United to suffer another monetary blow.
Whatever the consequences to United’s balance sheet, however things pan out for Van Gaal on a personal level, the most important thing for the club’s supporters is that their team win the three games which remain this season. Another year without Champions League football would be an almighty blow, while an FA Cup final embarrassment at the hands of Crystal Palace would also be tough to stomach.
Yet the chances are that that would lead to another 12 months of an unhappy marriage between the supporters and Van Gaal. With the news that season tickets are now being snapped up at record pace comes the realisation that United fans will not cut off their noses to spite their faces.“I think the board has to evaluate after the results of this year, what they have to do," Van Gaal said recently.
“I cannot predict that when I do not know the facts. First you have to see the facts, I have always said that. The results and the titles and Champions League positions you can only say at the end.“I am a rational person. I know a Manchester United manager has to win something, but I am still working on that.”
And if United claim fourth spot this week, there remains a great possibility that Van Gaal will be ‘working on that’ for another 12 months to come.
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