on analysis on how people have voted....
For mahinda....
1)The 24 people who will vote for mahinda this time have voted for him even before(31.17%) being SLFP'ers by birth...No surprises there
2)The 5 ppl who hadn't voted for anyone last time but will vote for MR i believe are new voters from SLFp families...(6.49%)
For Sarath..
1)The 16 ppl who voted for Ranil last time & will vote for SF are born UNP'ers who will vote for anyone except for SLFP...No surprises there too..(21%)
2)The 14 ppl who voted MR last time but will vote SF this time represent the swing votes block (18.18%)..SF has managed to grab the swing voters better than mahinda as it shows
3)The 17 people (22.58%) who had not voted before are fresh voters from UNP/JVP families,PPl whose votes were cut during last time elections(such as myself) & ppl who were tired of the political situation in this country till now & will come forward for the 1st time to make a change
So in conclusion,MR will only manage to grab the votes of SLFP families but SF will benefit from 35% fixed vote block of UNP,5% fixed vote block of JVP plus majority of 1st time voters & floating votes....
So i can safely predict that SF will win the election with a 52-55% unless some drastic elections malpractices take place regarding to 200,000 IDP votes..
This is purely my opinion....anyone else will have a different opinion than this...& I purely respect that.......