Wrong Timing, Wrong Reasoning, Wrong Partnering.
Mangala Samaraweera is one of the few politicians in Sri Lanka, whom I identify as "value for votes" politician for the common public. (Surprised?). When we buy something from a shop, we expect some "value for money". Likewise, when we vote for some politicians, we expect some "value for votes". And Mangala Samaraweera has given exactly the same thing for the people who voted him in all past elections. Pay a visit to Matara municipal area and see it in your own two eyes. Speak to few people walking around in Matara bus stand, and ask "what do you think about Mangala Mahaththaya?". If you are not in a position to visit Matara, go to Telecom head office in Colombo, Ports Authority office or Lake house. Ask the same question from people working there. I'm sure you will get few surprising answers, if you were in the perception that "Mangala is a politician without a proper public acceptance".
Not only that, he always delivered "value for everything" for the leaders/colleagues/partners he worked with. Think about CBK, Mahinda, Tiran Allas or Wimal Weerawansa. These are the well known figures in Sri Lanka, who worked closely with Mangala. Every one got "something valuable" from this guy. (Can you say no?)
In my honest opinion, Mangala is a real "Doer". I really admire him as a politician. Most of the political decisions he made in the past were one the bull's-eye. His decision to take side with CBK, against Sirimavo in 1994, and his contribution to make a coalition with JVP in 2004 (UPFA, and to take side with Mahinda, in 2005 presidential election were some proof for his excellent common sense in politics. He always knew the winning formula. He was always in the winning side.
But this time he made the wrong move. In fact, he was pushed to make a wrong move by Anura CBK.
Break-aways from main political parties is not a new thing for Sri Lanka politics. SWRD breaking away from UNP, and forming the SLFP was the first such successful attempt. There after, in history we've seen many politicians breaking away from their original party, and forming new political parties. But, almost 100% of those attempts ended up in nothing. Especially the break aways from SLFP. Ariya Bulegoda, breaking away from SLFP and forming SL Progressive Front, CBK breaking away from SLFP and forming Bahujana Party were few example. What happened in the end was, CBK had to return to SLFP to become the president. Who knows much about Ariya Bulegoda today?
Lalith Gamini Factor
And many people compares Mangala's break away with the Lalith/Gamini break away from Premadasa government. Yes, these 2 incidents are very much similar, unless the fact that Lalith Gamini took the right timing, and they had right reasons. Above all, their party haven't partnered with any "wrong" political partners, until both Lalith Gamini were assassinated.
When Lalith Gamini start their riots against Premadasa, the public at large, were fed up with Premadasa administration. And, they (Lalith Gamini) gave enough time to Premadasa, to get rid of the JVP terrorism in south. Lalith & Gamini were never happy with Premadasa, from the day he was elected as the president. Things went worse, when Premadasa appointed Wijetunga as the premier. The whole country was expecting Lilith to be the Prime Minister, but Premadasa took a radical decision. From day one of Premadasa's regime, Lalith Gamini waited for the "right time". They were very clever and cunning. They waited until Premadasa, along with Ranjan Wijeratne sweep out the JVP riots. They (Lalith & Gamini) didn't involved in any of the dirty work carried out by Premadasa, to get rid of JVP. They didn't "white washed" premadasa administration. But they didn't resisted or opposed as well. Because they knew, Premadasa was doing the "right thing" the "dirty way".
They didn't wanted to interrupt the "right thing" and they didn't wanted to be a part of the dirty work.
Once the JVP terrorism was completely swept out from south, Premadasa regime continued the same curtail towards the civil society. Press freedom was a dream at that time. No one can criticize the president or the UNP in public places. Corruption dominated public sector. The "President of Small men" became a ruthless dictator. AsiaWeek reported a cover story about Premadasa titled "Rule by the Sword". I still remember One big bold headline in a weekend tabloid paper named "Lakdiva" (Editored by Sunil Madava Premathilaka). The title was "Premadasa... Api Soodanam!" (Premadasa... We Are Ready to take the challenge!). There were no "Sirasa News first" or any other private media. Veritas and BBC Sinhala service were the only electronic media which were "none government propeganda". I still remember how we flocked around the radio, to listen to Radio Veritas news, broadcasted from Manila.
Slowly and steadily, Premadasa became the "enemy of the public". Lalith Gamini knew, if Premadasa stand for the next presidential election (1994), he will go for another 6 years like this. So they thought it was the "right timing". And they had a whole lot of "right reasons" to back them up. They made the brave move!
The "Rajaliya Party" (Democratic United National Front - DUNF) was a major mile stone in Sri Lanka politics. It was a new hope for the people who were fed up with UNP corrupted government, and who didn't want a "go back" to the closed economy policy of SLFP. In simple term, it was a "Need of that time". There was a demand, and Lalith Gamini served that demand.
But the case Mangala Sripathi is different. They made their move in the wrong time, and without any logical reasons.
Wrong Timing
I said in above paragraph that, Lalith Gamini waited until Premadasa get rid of JVP riots. But Mangala & Sripathi didn't gave than chance to Mahinda. They didn't gave enough time to Mahinda, to get rid of LTTE terrorism. Instead what they have done was trying to put breaks on Mahinda's efforts to get rid of LTTE.
And the other thing is, Mahinda is not yet rejected by the public. There's no such a strong resistance towards the Mahinda administration, by the common public of this country. Only few extremist Ranil supporters, and NGO/LTTE coalitions are exaggerating things against Mahinda. As a general overview, people still believe that Mahinda can do something for this country. Premadasa lost that public endorsement towards the end of his regime, and Lalith/Gamini took the advantage. Therefore, we can't accept a wide public acceptance towards SLFP - M, like the craze we saw for Lalith/Gamini's "Rajaliya". In simple terms, this isn't the "need of this time". There is no demand for new political parties. People expect main parties to join and work together, instead of breaking into more smaller groups.
Wrong Reasoning
Mangala had a whole lot of complaints against Mahinga administration. He says, Mahinda is corrupted and incapable. And he says he lied to people in last election, to bring Mahinda to power. Ok, now let's look at this....
We all know there were few rounds of negotiations between Mahinda Mangala, after the president's initial decision of taking back 3 ministries held by Mangala. Minister Mawlana was the chief negotiator. It is said that, Mangala and Mahinda came close to a friendly negotiation. Mahinda was willing to take Mangala back, and Mangala was willing to work with Mahinda once again. As a result of these negotiations, Mangala was offered the ministry of irrigation. But Mangala refused it and, requested for the ministry of Ports & Aviation back. Mahinda didn't agreed. So, Mangala refused everything and decided to fire all cylinders against Mahinda.
Now, what if Mahinda agreed to offer the ministry of Ports Aviation back to Mangala?
I don't comment further, because you understand what I'm trying to get at. Then, all these criticism against Mahinda will get nullified, and Mangala & Sripathi will start bashing Ranil again, saying he's the "Kola Kotiya".Cheap, disgusting politics.
Wrong Partnering
Immediately after forming the SLFP-M, now who is Mangala trying to partner with? Rani Wickramasinghe.
If Mangala decided to go this journey by his own, it would have been better supported by the public. But, partnering with Ranil? I think Mangala has virtually committed suicide by meeting Ranil. Sunanda Deshapriya seems to be jubilant about this partnership and he speculate “major” political changes in the near future.
For people like him, it's not a big deal to speculate. But, we know how the politics of this country work. Any one who partner with Ranil will go to more disaster and agony. Just think about the LTTE!
What would be the future?
Future is disastrous for Sri Lanka. We (Common people) expect the main parties to work together with a national plan and policies. But, Ranil wants to do it on his own way. JVP are still playing the shylock. Now, Mangala got another dream! WTF is going on?. The worst thing Sri Lanka want now is another general election before 2010. We've spent unnecessary amounts of money on GE's in 2002, and 2004 just because our opposition politicians were impatient to sit in governing party and hold a minister post. So, if the country is pushed towards another interim general election during this decade, that will not be the good of any one. Ideally after the 2000 GE, the next GE was planned to 2006, and it was supposed to be the only planned GE for this decade. But, what happened was we were pushed to 2 extra unnecessary GE's during the first 5 years of this decade, due to the impatience of our MP's (Morons of Parliament). Now, Thissa Attanayaka and some others are urging for another election. Because they are too impatient. If the country is pushed to another GE, within next 12 months (3rd in this decade) I'll predict the results now!
UNP will win the majority of seats in Parliament, because JVP and SLFP are going to contest separately. SLFP - M will not be a decisive factor. But, UNP can't form a government because the opposition is larger. Mahinda will definitely elect a cabinet from the opposition. Parliament will go to more chaos!!!.
What would be the result? More elections? More corruption?
JR's constitution sucks big time! I never realized that before. But after 30 years, now it's clearly displaying it's cruelty.
