When the first COVID-19 vaccine trial results were announced in late 2020, there was surprise and jubilation about just how efficacious many of the vaccine candidates appeared to be.
Since then, more than 3.65 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered worldwide, and we’ve also seen the rise of new coronavirus variants – some of which can partially evade the protective immunity conferred by these vaccines.
So how does their “real-world” effectiveness stack up against the efficacy recorded in those initial clinical trials?
EFFICACY VERSUS EFFECTIVENESS
Efficacy is the degree to which a vaccine prevents disease, and possibly transmission, under ideal and controlled circumstances, whereas a vaccine’s effectiveness refers to how well it performs in the real world – including against new variants, and in people who may have been excluded from clinical trials, such as frail elderly individuals, or those taking drugs that suppress immune responses.Some of the COVID-19 vaccines, such as the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, reported greater than 90% efficacy in the context of those trials, and all of those authorised for emergency use by the WHO and currently being monitored in the general population*, reported efficacies of greater than 50% for the prevention of symptomatic disease, and much higher efficacies for the prevention of hospitalisations or death (see table below).
As more real-world data emerges, our knowledge of all these areas will only increase, and we will also start to gain new insights into the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, such as how long the immune protection afforded by them lasts.
EFFICACIES OF COVID-19 VACCINES BASED ON CLINICAL TRIAL RESULTS
| Vaccine | Protection against all symptomatic disease after 1st dose (95% CI)* | Protection against all symptomatic disease after 2nd dose (95% CI)* | Protection against severe disease or hospitalization from start of vaccination (95% CI)* | Protection against severe disease or hospitalization from 21 days after 1st dose (95% CI)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AstraZeneca | 73% (56%-83%)** | 67% (57% to 74%)** | 90% (58%-98%) | 100% |
| Moderna | 85% (66%-93%) | 95% (90%-97%) | 100% | 100% |
| Pfizer-BioNTech | 82% (76%-87%) | 94% (90%-97%) | 89% (12%-99%) | 83% (-38% to 98%) |
| Sinopharm | n/a | 78% (65%-86%) | n/a | 79% (26%-94%) |
| Sinovac | n/a | 51% (36%-62%) | n/a | 100% |
| Janssen/Johnson& Johnson | 66% (55%-75%)*** | n/a | 77% (55%-89%) after 14 days | 85% (54%-97%) after 28 days |
**AstraZeneca data shown on symptomatic disease is only for cases at least 14 days after administration of dose
***Single dose vaccine. Refers to protection against symptomatic disease, 28 days after vaccination.
This is far better than many scientists had dared to predict this time last year. Indeed, the WHO originally said that a minimally acceptable COVID-19 vaccine would achieve at least 50% efficacy, but ideally at least 70% efficacy, with consistent results in older people, and immunity lasting for at least a year.
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