Draw
both will declare some sort of a victory and will have border clashes ongoing for years to come.
Ukraine don’t have the capacity to take back all the territories they lost and Russia cant take Ukraine as a whole, then they went to just take East banks of Dneiper, and then just Donbas. now they want to hold just the ground they captured.
Ukraine will make some gains soon in some area and then also retreat from some areas and let Russia have it. Then each party will declare they achieved war goals and stop the war. That’s what I think will happen.