If Airbus makes the A380neo it could be kiss of death for Boeing 747-8
Boeing's 747s may be the more iconic planes, but Airbus will likely be the last aerospace company to make four-engine aircraft.
Aerospace analyst Scott Hamilton predicted Tuesday that Boeing (NYSE: BA) will deliver its last 747-8s in 2018, and those will be the two new versions of Air Force One.
he A380neo will be bigger than the 747-8, and also more fuel-efficient. That combination is exactly what the mega cities around the world are looking for to help transport an increasingly mobile and growing population through space-constrained airports.
Combine that with the increasing possibility Airbus will upgrade its double-decker A380 with new fuel-efficient engines, and it is becoming more likely only the Airbus A380neo will survive.
"We now zero out the 747-8 program in 2018," Hamilton wrote on his Leeham website.
Analyst Addison Schonland, who publishes AirInsight, agrees:
"The 747, now that they have the order for Air Force One, most likely that's going to be the last passenger version of the airplane," he said.
In an emailed response, Boeing spokesman Paul Bergman argued that the Boeing 747-8 is still competitive and relevant.
"The 747-8 is a very competitive airplane with a significant market segment for both the passenger and freight markets," he wrote. "We continue to believe in the long-term strength of the freighter market and the 747-8 is uniquely positioned to capture that demand."
The reason why the re-engined A380 re-stacks the deck is that new engines for the 10-year-old jet will burn 11 percent less fuel, Schonland estimates.
This matters because the lower engines will put the four-engine A380 in a new league of fuel efficiency in terms of cost-per-seat-mile, an industry measurement that points at how much it costs to fly each person.
Hamilton predicts the 550-seat A380neo will be 22 percent more efficient per seat mile than the 450-seat 747-8 passenger model. Schonland predicts 21 percent.
Another analyst, G2 Solutions LLC partner Michel Merluzeau, agrees about the importance of the A380neo's expected economics.
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http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2015/03/04/if-airbus-makes-the-a380neo-it-could-be-kiss-of.html