💲📈 සීයාට ආයෙත් එන්න වෙයි වගේ⁉️

pramodh87

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  • Oct 11, 2007
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    Sonique

    Well-known member
  • Oct 22, 2007
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    Forest
    අර නන්දලාල්ට ඕනිලුනේ 5% inflation annually. එතකොටලු healthy. රට 100% inflate උන එක අදාල නෑලු. තව රුපියල බාල්දු වෙන්න ඕනිලු දියුණු වෙන්න. Boomers ලගේ රෙද්දෙ theory 🙄 ලෝකෙම කරුමයක් කරල තියෙන්නෙ ගොන් theory හදල. ගොඩක් උන්ට ජීවත් වෙන්නත් අමාරුයි දියුණු උන බම්බු රටකුත් නෑ මේ financial theory වලින්

    https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking...-rebound-to-5-target-in-early-2026/108-316893



    2. Why Sri Lanka’s Central Bank argues for 5%​

    The argument they are using comes from textbook inflation-targeting theory, developed for stable, diversified economies.

    Their logic is roughly:

    • 0–2% inflation risks deflation
    • Sri Lanka has rigid wages and debt
    • A buffer (≈5%) gives “policy space”
    • Inflation erodes government debt
    This logic assumes:

    • Strong institutions
    • Credible central bank
    • Deep capital markets
    • High productivity growth
    ⚠️ Sri Lanka has none of these consistently


    3. Why this logic breaks down in Sri Lanka​

    A. Sri Lanka is NOT a productivity-driven economy​

    Inflation theory assumes:

    Wages + productivity grow faster than inflation
    In Sri Lanka:

    • Productivity growth is weak
    • Real wages stagnate
    • Currency depreciates
    • Inflation is imported (fuel, food, medicine)

    So inflation becomes pure loss, not adjustment


    5. “But developed countries target inflation too”​


    Yes — but context matters.


    CountryInflation TargetWhy it works
    USA~2%High productivity, reserve currency
    Germany~2%Export surplus, wage bargaining
    Japan~2%Deflation risk, high savings

    Sri Lanka:


    • No reserve currency
    • Persistent trade deficit
    • Weak tax base
    • Currency depreciation amplifies inflation

    Same policy ≠ same outcome.

    7. Realistic alternatives (not fantasies)​


    A. Temporary near-zero inflation target​


    For 5–10 years:


    • Restore trust
    • Protect savings
    • Force fiscal discipline
    • Signal seriousness

    Many countries have done this after crises.




    B. Focus on price stability, not inflation targets​


    Especially for:


    • Food
    • Energy
    • Transport
    • Medicine

    People don’t eat “core inflation”.

    C. Growth through productivity, not currency erosion​


    • Export competitiveness via efficiency
    • Skills and technology
    • Regulatory reform
    • SOE restructuring

    Inflation is a poor substitute for real growth.


    9. Bottom line (plain truth)​

    • 5% inflation is not harmless
    • In Sri Lanka’s context, it is dangerous
    • It compounds poverty and distrust
    • It substitutes reform with erosion
    • You are right to reject it
    Inflation is tolerable only when:

    • Institutions are strong
    • Trust exists
    • Productivity grows
    • Currency is stable
    Sri Lanka currently meets none of these conditions.


    මේ 50 පැන්න උන්නං පුදුම කරුමයක් වෙලා තියෙන්නේ, specially financial sector එකේ ඉන්න ඔස්තාර්ල
     
    Last edited:

    CohenLenstra

    Well-known member
  • Jan 11, 2024
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    අර නන්දලාල්ට ඕනිලුනේ 5% inflation annually. එතකොටලු healthy. රට 100% inflate උන එක අදාල නෑලු. තව රුපියල බාල්දු වෙන්න ඕනිලු දියුණු වෙන්න. Boomers ලගේ රෙද්දෙ theory 🙄 ලෝකෙම කරුමයක් කරල තියෙන්නෙ ගොන් theory හදල. ගොඩක් උන්ට ජීවත් වෙන්නත් අමාරුයි දියුණු උන බම්බු රටකුත් නෑ මේ financial theory වලින්

    https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking...-rebound-to-5-target-in-early-2026/108-316893



    2. Why Sri Lanka’s Central Bank argues for 5%​

    The argument they are using comes from textbook inflation-targeting theory, developed for stable, diversified economies.

    Their logic is roughly:

    • 0–2% inflation risks deflation
    • Sri Lanka has rigid wages and debt
    • A buffer (≈5%) gives “policy space”
    • Inflation erodes government debt
    This logic assumes:

    • Strong institutions
    • Credible central bank
    • Deep capital markets
    • High productivity growth
    ⚠️ Sri Lanka has none of these consistently


    3. Why this logic breaks down in Sri Lanka​

    A. Sri Lanka is NOT a productivity-driven economy​

    Inflation theory assumes:


    In Sri Lanka:

    • Productivity growth is weak
    • Real wages stagnate
    • Currency depreciates
    • Inflation is imported (fuel, food, medicine)

    So inflation becomes pure loss, not adjustment


    5. “But developed countries target inflation too”​


    Yes — but context matters.


    CountryInflation TargetWhy it works
    USA~2%High productivity, reserve currency
    Germany~2%Export surplus, wage bargaining
    Japan~2%Deflation risk, high savings

    Sri Lanka:


    • No reserve currency
    • Persistent trade deficit
    • Weak tax base
    • Currency depreciation amplifies inflation

    Same policy ≠ same outcome.

    7. Realistic alternatives (not fantasies)​


    A. Temporary near-zero inflation target​


    For 5–10 years:


    • Restore trust
    • Protect savings
    • Force fiscal discipline
    • Signal seriousness

    Many countries have done this after crises.




    B. Focus on price stability, not inflation targets​


    Especially for:


    • Food
    • Energy
    • Transport
    • Medicine

    People don’t eat “core inflation”.

    C. Growth through productivity, not currency erosion​


    • Export competitiveness via efficiency
    • Skills and technology
    • Regulatory reform
    • SOE restructuring

    Inflation is a poor substitute for real growth.


    9. Bottom line (plain truth)​

    • 5% inflation is not harmless
    • In Sri Lanka’s context, it is dangerous
    • It compounds poverty and distrust
    • It substitutes reform with erosion
    • You are right to reject it
    Inflation is tolerable only when:

    • Institutions are strong
    • Trust exists
    • Productivity grows
    • Currency is stable
    Sri Lanka currently meets none of these conditions.


    මේ 50 පැන්න උන්නං පුදුම කරුමයක් වෙලා තියෙන්නේ, specially financial sector එකේ ඉන්න ඔස්තාර්ල

    5% inflation is a bit too high. Something around 3% would be good I guess. With near zero inflation, no one will do productive investments, it's better to keep bank deposits rather than undergoing risks to achieve higher yields - people will see no reason to. That will slow down economic growth.

    This risk of devaluation is what drives people to take higher risks and compound their wealth. In developing countries since risks are higher, the urge to take risks should be strongee. So we need higher inflation rates than developed countries.

    This is in India
    IMG_8414.jpeg
     
    Last edited:
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    ozykolla

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  • Jun 20, 2022
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    රුපියල් භාවිතය අතහැරපල්ලා
    භාණ්ඩ හුවමාරු ක්‍රමයට මාරු වෙයල්ලා

    ආණ්ඩුවට කම්කරුවෙක් නොවෙල්ලා
     

    Mr Bones

    Well-known member
  • Mar 13, 2023
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    එතකොට රටටම කෙළ වෙනවනේ බන්. 🙁
    චන්දෙ දීපු උන්ට ඕන උනේ එකනේ බන්. කරන්න දෙයක් නැහැ. ඕකුන්ව ෆේල් කරලා පච සේරම වමාරවලා විපශේ ඉඳිද්දී විරුද්ද වෙච්ච දේවල් සේරම ඕකුන් ලව්වම කරවලා එලවන්න ඕන.