If PCR contests that would be a landslide. I don't know if he is a good president or not, I can't vouch on that. So don't drag me into that mud. But the fact is if PC runs, the election is just a formality.
PCR wouldn't run if he can't win, guy is smart enough to know that.
Patali 2024 Victory >= GR 2019 victory
But incase if SP doesn't give a opportunity to PCR then things would be interesting. Diehard UNP/SJB people hate MS for betraying them after becoming pres. But SP on the other hand has a good relationship with MS.
You just can't write off SP thinking he is a joke. ( I know he is the entire circus like GR but..) He had more than 5.5 Million votes. So if he manages secure another 1 million more votes, he has a good chance. But he still needs the backing from TNA.
PCR might still run if he gets enough backing from some other parties. Maybe from AKD, SLFP and worried SLPP people forming a new front.
AKD has a looong way to go. He needs the backing of TNA and upcountry parties. AKD needs to impress them at Provincial councils.