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- Thread starter emoji diaries
- Start date
ANALYSIS ON CSE RISE TO #1 AND THE EMBARASSING FALL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Lets start somewhere
STEP 1 : Prediction of ASI 9000
1) First read this post very carefully
2) When ASI hit rose from 4200-8000 in 8 months and started dropping again people were concerned of ASI direction
3) But I said "Next medium term ASI target I expect is around 9000." ( Proof : read above post)
4) On JAN 29th ASI crossed 9000 briefly.
So did my exact guesstimate come true? YES.
How did I know ASI will hit 9000 , that will take another post to explain.
But did I expect ASI to rise from 7800 to 9000 in 7 market days? NOPE!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STEP 2 : Issues with the Rise to 9000
1) In the above referenced post, I showed how BIL, EXPO. CLC, LOFC helped to push ASI to 8000 and cautioned that those specific share rises mostly pushing ASI was not sustainable.
2) I said for ASI to safety rise to 9000 without a bubble, Banking/Financial sector needs to take over.
In reality, partly it did happen .
3) The herd pushed/heated BIL, EXPO, CLC, and LOFC took a break ( fell back in price ).
4) But in the rise to 9000 in 7 days only, something worse happened. A handful of shares were pushed to make ASI go there.
EXERCISE: Tell me 3 of the 5 main shares that rose abnormally in 7 days which helped to push ASI to 9000 in such a hurry.
Need some help? Educate yourself if you don't know
Refer to
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STEP 3: The day ASI hit 9000 + EXPO SAGA + SEC DIRECTIVE
-------------
On the same day ASI crossed 9000 , some big issues happened
ISSUE 1 : EXPO DRAMA
-----
* EXPO results were out. People started selling EXPO like hot cakes.
* It was sold from Rs 56 down to Rs 42. Major drop that directly affected ASI massively as EXPO was now a Market High Cap in the top 10 at CSE.
* People who want to learn , can you tell me why EXPO was sold?
a) There is a fundamental reason ( if you follow my posts you will know the answer as I predicted this EXPO sell off before )
b) Something not so fundamental and very weird happened too.
Retailers could not trade with EXPO as ATRAD stopped working. Market trading was halted for a while too .
c) I was NOT using ATRAD. My software was Working! When EXPO fell to RS 42 , I was trying to buy some. But I couldn't. Yet I saw EXPO trading happening. WHAT THE HELL?
I MANAGED TO SOLVE THE MYSTERY LATER.
Answer : Some people with access to the ATS terminals were selling EXPO.Us retailers do not have access to these terminals. Not even the average stock brokers. Can you guess who sold then
d) Summary : EXPO results, sell off, funny business and Market halt effected ASI sentiments.
ISSUE 2 : SEC DIRECTIVE TO STOCKBROKERS
-----
a) SEC Requested brokers to submit Debtor details.
b) They directly identified 7 main shares
- BIL, EXPO, LOLC, ASPH, SIRA, BPPL, GLAS
c) I managed to find a copy of this circular ( which is deleted now) and attached it below . SEE
d) THIS ADDED FEAR TO BROKERS + THE BIG TRADERS WHO WERE PLAYING WITH THESE SHARES AND SOME OTHERS ( I revealed how this game is played in a previous post if you read it
e) When Broker accounts and Big players were selling off in fear and displeasure, what happened next?
ISSUE 3:
-------
THE NON FUNDAMENTAL VALUE KNOWING , NEW CSE ENTRANTS WHO WANTS TO MAKE CSE A CASINO TO MAKE MONEY OVER NIGHT START PANICKING AND SELLING OFF TOO.
ISSUE 4 : TOO MANY SPLITS TOO SOON.
--------
* DP specially should have done his SPLITS in steps.
* Also non needed splits for small shares like SERV, ALUF were done.
* Due to such and Social media promotions , lot of new money was moving into Split announced shares ( and split speculated shares ) chasing them without any idea of value.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STEP 4 : WORD ON SEC DIRECTIVE
I see 2 kinds of people
a) Many criticizing SEC for adding fear
b) Other who support SEC for taking stand against manipulation to make CSE stable in the long term
Let me take the MIDDLE PATH and tell you my view on this.
1) Actually SEC was doing its duty if you impartially look at this.
2) Did I not specifically point out my concerns on how LOLC,BIL,EXPO, ASPH was trading abnormally in my posts?
Check these special posts for examples on LOLC and ASPH
3) But I think SEC made A Mistake. Though SEC motive was good to control credit bubbles and manipulation, I think they handled this wrong by directly naming these shares. This added fear. They could have done the same differently (which I will not go into) to get the same result.
4) Later SEC identified the mistake and tried to clarify what they were trying to do in a Circular sent to Brokers on Feb 1st, but by then fear was already added and chain reactions had already started .
5) Summary : As far as I see SEC was trying to control a credit bubble , but their approach was practically faulty and they should have adopted a different method.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STEP 5 : Summary : What made market crash from 9000 to 8005
REASON 1) TECHNICAL :
a) The run from 6000--8000 was too fast. I warned in my posts
b) Next the run from 8000-9000 in 7 days was just crazy .
c) Market was heated far too much . Almost every technical indicator showed such.
d) Summary : A big Market correction was technically due once ASI hit the target I predicted ( 9000)
REASON 2)
SEC DIRECTIVE ADDING FEAR TO BROKERS AND BIG TRADER PLAYING WITH CERTAIN SHARES
REASON 3)
THE HERD CHASING , NON FUNDAMENTAL VALUE EDUCATED, CASINO STYLE GAMBLING NEW ENTRANTS TO CSE WHO WANT TO GET RICH OVERNIGHT GOT PANICKED IN THE SELL OFF AND CHAIN REACTIONS HAPPENED
REASON 4) MARGIN CALLS AND CREDIT CRUNCHES HAPPENING
~~~~~~
It took me 2.5 hours to write , edit and format this post.
So I will stop with some important wrap ups
~~~~~~
IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS AND REQUESTS TO YOU
1) Just like CSE ran too fast , CSE fall was too fast too.
I never saw an ASI drop of 560 points in a single day.
2) Market has technically cooled off enough now.
Its in a good stand.
3) Some shares have dropped too much in value .
4) For health of market
a) I IDEALLY LIKE CSE to turn to GREEN TODAY
b) but as FEB 4th is holiday, there maybe game players who want to drag market down more today too to collect cheaper.
If such happens big, margin call can trigger for some. This is not good.
BEST IS MARKET TURNS GREEN RIGHT AWAY TODAY OR DIPS
ONLY A LITTLE AND RECOVER TODAY ITSELF. WORST IT NEEDS TO RECOVER FRIDAY.
5) REQUEST TO PEOPLE AT CSE :
* DO NOT FOLLOW HERDS AND PROMOTIONS.
* NEW COMERS LEARN WHAT VALUE IS . TRY TO BE AN INVESTOR BEFORE SWING TRADING TO MAKE QUICK MONEY IN SHORT TERM. THIS IS FOR YOUR SAFETY.
* IF AN INVESTMENT WORTHY UNDERVALUED SHARE FALLS TOO MUCH IN THIS CRASH DO NOT SELL IT . DONT BE STUPID TO MAKE RICH RICHER AND POOR POORER.
*CONTROLLED TRADING IS OKAY. BUT DONT PLAY TOO MUCH WITH MANIPULATED OVER VALUED SHARES. YOU CAN LOSE AN ARM IN FEW MINUTES AS YOU WOULD HAVE LEARNT BY NOW.
( Refer to ASPH game for example)
All the best!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Lets start somewhere
STEP 1 : Prediction of ASI 9000
1) First read this post very carefully
2) When ASI hit rose from 4200-8000 in 8 months and started dropping again people were concerned of ASI direction
3) But I said "Next medium term ASI target I expect is around 9000." ( Proof : read above post)
4) On JAN 29th ASI crossed 9000 briefly.
So did my exact guesstimate come true? YES.
How did I know ASI will hit 9000 , that will take another post to explain.
But did I expect ASI to rise from 7800 to 9000 in 7 market days? NOPE!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STEP 2 : Issues with the Rise to 9000
1) In the above referenced post, I showed how BIL, EXPO. CLC, LOFC helped to push ASI to 8000 and cautioned that those specific share rises mostly pushing ASI was not sustainable.
2) I said for ASI to safety rise to 9000 without a bubble, Banking/Financial sector needs to take over.
In reality, partly it did happen .
3) The herd pushed/heated BIL, EXPO, CLC, and LOFC took a break ( fell back in price ).
4) But in the rise to 9000 in 7 days only, something worse happened. A handful of shares were pushed to make ASI go there.
EXERCISE: Tell me 3 of the 5 main shares that rose abnormally in 7 days which helped to push ASI to 9000 in such a hurry.
Need some help? Educate yourself if you don't know
Refer to
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STEP 3: The day ASI hit 9000 + EXPO SAGA + SEC DIRECTIVE
-------------
On the same day ASI crossed 9000 , some big issues happened
ISSUE 1 : EXPO DRAMA
-----
* EXPO results were out. People started selling EXPO like hot cakes.
* It was sold from Rs 56 down to Rs 42. Major drop that directly affected ASI massively as EXPO was now a Market High Cap in the top 10 at CSE.
* People who want to learn , can you tell me why EXPO was sold?
a) There is a fundamental reason ( if you follow my posts you will know the answer as I predicted this EXPO sell off before )
b) Something not so fundamental and very weird happened too.
Retailers could not trade with EXPO as ATRAD stopped working. Market trading was halted for a while too .
c) I was NOT using ATRAD. My software was Working! When EXPO fell to RS 42 , I was trying to buy some. But I couldn't. Yet I saw EXPO trading happening. WHAT THE HELL?
I MANAGED TO SOLVE THE MYSTERY LATER.
Answer : Some people with access to the ATS terminals were selling EXPO.Us retailers do not have access to these terminals. Not even the average stock brokers. Can you guess who sold then
d) Summary : EXPO results, sell off, funny business and Market halt effected ASI sentiments.
ISSUE 2 : SEC DIRECTIVE TO STOCKBROKERS
-----
a) SEC Requested brokers to submit Debtor details.
b) They directly identified 7 main shares
- BIL, EXPO, LOLC, ASPH, SIRA, BPPL, GLAS
c) I managed to find a copy of this circular ( which is deleted now) and attached it below . SEE
d) THIS ADDED FEAR TO BROKERS + THE BIG TRADERS WHO WERE PLAYING WITH THESE SHARES AND SOME OTHERS ( I revealed how this game is played in a previous post if you read it
e) When Broker accounts and Big players were selling off in fear and displeasure, what happened next?
ISSUE 3:
-------
THE NON FUNDAMENTAL VALUE KNOWING , NEW CSE ENTRANTS WHO WANTS TO MAKE CSE A CASINO TO MAKE MONEY OVER NIGHT START PANICKING AND SELLING OFF TOO.
ISSUE 4 : TOO MANY SPLITS TOO SOON.
--------
* DP specially should have done his SPLITS in steps.
* Also non needed splits for small shares like SERV, ALUF were done.
* Due to such and Social media promotions , lot of new money was moving into Split announced shares ( and split speculated shares ) chasing them without any idea of value.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STEP 4 : WORD ON SEC DIRECTIVE
I see 2 kinds of people
a) Many criticizing SEC for adding fear
b) Other who support SEC for taking stand against manipulation to make CSE stable in the long term
Let me take the MIDDLE PATH and tell you my view on this.
1) Actually SEC was doing its duty if you impartially look at this.
2) Did I not specifically point out my concerns on how LOLC,BIL,EXPO, ASPH was trading abnormally in my posts?
Check these special posts for examples on LOLC and ASPH
3) But I think SEC made A Mistake. Though SEC motive was good to control credit bubbles and manipulation, I think they handled this wrong by directly naming these shares. This added fear. They could have done the same differently (which I will not go into) to get the same result.
4) Later SEC identified the mistake and tried to clarify what they were trying to do in a Circular sent to Brokers on Feb 1st, but by then fear was already added and chain reactions had already started .
5) Summary : As far as I see SEC was trying to control a credit bubble , but their approach was practically faulty and they should have adopted a different method.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STEP 5 : Summary : What made market crash from 9000 to 8005
REASON 1) TECHNICAL :
a) The run from 6000--8000 was too fast. I warned in my posts
b) Next the run from 8000-9000 in 7 days was just crazy .
c) Market was heated far too much . Almost every technical indicator showed such.
d) Summary : A big Market correction was technically due once ASI hit the target I predicted ( 9000)
REASON 2)
SEC DIRECTIVE ADDING FEAR TO BROKERS AND BIG TRADER PLAYING WITH CERTAIN SHARES
REASON 3)
THE HERD CHASING , NON FUNDAMENTAL VALUE EDUCATED, CASINO STYLE GAMBLING NEW ENTRANTS TO CSE WHO WANT TO GET RICH OVERNIGHT GOT PANICKED IN THE SELL OFF AND CHAIN REACTIONS HAPPENED
REASON 4) MARGIN CALLS AND CREDIT CRUNCHES HAPPENING
~~~~~~
It took me 2.5 hours to write , edit and format this post.
So I will stop with some important wrap ups
~~~~~~
IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS AND REQUESTS TO YOU
1) Just like CSE ran too fast , CSE fall was too fast too.
I never saw an ASI drop of 560 points in a single day.
2) Market has technically cooled off enough now.
Its in a good stand.
3) Some shares have dropped too much in value .
4) For health of market
a) I IDEALLY LIKE CSE to turn to GREEN TODAY
b) but as FEB 4th is holiday, there maybe game players who want to drag market down more today too to collect cheaper.
If such happens big, margin call can trigger for some. This is not good.
BEST IS MARKET TURNS GREEN RIGHT AWAY TODAY OR DIPS
ONLY A LITTLE AND RECOVER TODAY ITSELF. WORST IT NEEDS TO RECOVER FRIDAY.
5) REQUEST TO PEOPLE AT CSE :
* DO NOT FOLLOW HERDS AND PROMOTIONS.
* NEW COMERS LEARN WHAT VALUE IS . TRY TO BE AN INVESTOR BEFORE SWING TRADING TO MAKE QUICK MONEY IN SHORT TERM. THIS IS FOR YOUR SAFETY.
* IF AN INVESTMENT WORTHY UNDERVALUED SHARE FALLS TOO MUCH IN THIS CRASH DO NOT SELL IT . DONT BE STUPID TO MAKE RICH RICHER AND POOR POORER.
*CONTROLLED TRADING IS OKAY. BUT DONT PLAY TOO MUCH WITH MANIPULATED OVER VALUED SHARES. YOU CAN LOSE AN ARM IN FEW MINUTES AS YOU WOULD HAVE LEARNT BY NOW.
( Refer to ASPH game for example)
All the best!
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